WNBA PLAYOFFS: No. 6 MINNESOTA LYNX VS. No. 3 CONNECTICUT SUN

MINNESOTA LYNX VS. CONNECTICUT SUN – EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 13, 2023 — The WNBA regular season is over and the playoffs tipoff tonight. The first game we have on tap features the No. 6 seed Minnesota Lynx taking on the No. 3 seed Connecticut Sun. 

Without further delay, here is a look at which team has the edge going into the opener of this first-round playoff series.

The Odds Table

Tipoff

• When: Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 8:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
  
• TV: ESPN2

MINNESOTA LNYX VS. CONNECTICUT SUN – REGULAR SEASON AND BETTING TRENDS

Minnesota Lynx Will Need a Miracle To Eclipse The Connecticut Sun

The Minnesota Lynx concluded their regular season with a pair of losses to the Chicago Sky (92-87) and the Indiana Fever (87-72). That the not the ideal scenario for any playoff team, but it’s their reality. If you are a Lynx fan, you may want to cover your eyes for a moment.  Minnesota was ranked ninth in scoring, with an average of 80.2 points per contest. Defensively, they were ranked 11th and 12th, respectively, in points allowed (85.0 PPG) and efficiency (allowing 107.5 points per 100 possessions). 

Connecticut Hoping For Continued Success Against Minnesota In Postseason Play

Meanwhile, the Connecticut Sun finished their regular season against a Chicago Sky squad that clinched the final playoff berth. MVP candidate, Alyssa Thomas, became the first player in WNBA history to finish a season with at least 600 points, 400 rebounds, and 300 assists.

Thomas also tallied 24 double-doubles and six triple-doubles while setting a league record in assists (316). Unfortunately, the Sun came up a bit short against Chicago, losing 102-91 in overtime. 

Connecticut boasts the fourth-best offense in the association, but this team performs at an even higher level. The Sun had the league’s top-scoring defense (79.0 PPG), and their defensive rating (100.7 points per 100 possessions) was the second-best in the league. 

These teams met three times during the regular season, with Connecticut winning two of those contests. In their lone win, the Lynx held the Sun to 38.9 percent shooting from the field and 17.6 percent from beyond the arc. It will take a similar effort for Minnesota to pull off an upset in this 3 vs. 6 matchup. 

The Picks

The Connecticut Sun are favored to win this contest by 9.5 points. This is a large spread for sure. But this is why I’m picking the higher seed to cover. 

• The Connecticut Sun are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games at home.
• The Sun are an impressive 6-3 ATS in their last nine matchups against the Lynx.
• The Minnesota Lynx are 2-4 ATS in their last six outings. 
• In their last six road games, the Lynx are just 2-4 ATS.
• Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in the last nine matchups they have had against the Sun.

Prediction: Connecticut Sun (-9.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest is 159.5 points. This is somewhat of a conservative total. And while these teams have eclipsed the 159.5-point total just once in their three regular-season matchups, here is a look at why I am inclined to go with the OVER here.

• The OVER total has hit in each of Minnesota’s last five games they played on a Wednesday.
• In the Lynx’s last nine games, the OVER is an impressive 7-2.
• The OVER total has prevailed for Minnesota six times in their last nine games against teams that have a winning record. 
• The OVER is 5-2 for Minnesota in its last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents. 
• In its last six games against Eastern Conference teams, the OVER is 5-1 for the Lynx. 
• The OVER total has prevailed five times in Connecticut’s last six outings against teams with a losing record. The Lynx finished the season 19-21. 
• The OVER total has hit 13 times for Connecticut in its last 17 home games. 
• The OVER total is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams.

Prediction: OVER 159.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. She currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and -105 odds of scoring less than 22.5 points. 

In the Sun’s last regular season game, Collier finished with 23 points and 10 rebounds. This marked the fourth time she posted a double-double in her previous five outings. Also, Collier has scored at least 22 points in seven of her last 10 games. 

Prediction: Napheesa Collier OVER 22.5 points