PURDUE BOILERMAKERS VS. UCONN HUSKIES ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR APRIL 8, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our basketball coverage here at Latest Basketball News. Today, we will focus on the NCAA Tournament National Championship game between the Purdue Boilermakers (34-4 SU) and the defending champion UConn Huskies (36-3 SU). 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Monday, April 8, 2024
  
• Time: 9:20 PM ET
  
• Where: State Farm Stadium
  
• Location: Glendale, AZ
  
• TV: TBS

Purdue Boilermakers vs. UConn Huskies Odds (Via DraftKings)

Purdue Boilermakers vs. UConn Huskies – Regular/Postseason Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Purdue Boilermakers Pull Off The Upset?

Purdue Boilermakers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 82.9 PPG – 14TH OF 362                    
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.0 points per 100 possessions – 4TH OF 362                        
• Scoring Defense: 68.8 PPG – 84TH OF 362                    
• Defensive Efficiency: 99.6 points per 100 possessions – 67TH OF 362           

The Purdue Boilermakers finished the regular season with six wins in their final seven games. And they have been nothing short of remarkable during the NCAA tournament.

They have defeated their opponents by an average of 19.6 points per contest. Not only that, but they have also held opposing teams to just 60.2 points per outing.

In the team’s 63-50 win against North Carolina State in the Final Four round, Zach Edey led the way with 20 points and 12 rebounds, becoming the first player in NCAA tournament history to post six straight games of at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. 

“The reason I came back is for playing games like this,” Edey said, via ESPN. “It’s the reason I’m playing college basketball for four years, to finally get this game, big-time.”

Edey is a two-time men’s college player of the year, and it is because of his solid play during the regular season and the tournament that has the Boilermakers thinking upset in their first title game appearance in 55 years.

Can The UConn Huskies Become First Collegiate Back-To-Back Champions Since 2007?

UConn Huskies Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 81.6 PPG – 21ST OF 362             
• Offensive Efficiency: 123.3 points per 100 possessions – 1ST OF 362             
• Scoring Defense: 63.5 PPG – 10TH OF 362                       
• Defensive Efficiency: 96.0 points per 100 possessions – 14TH OF 362             

On the other side of this matchup, the UConn Huskies are a formidable opponent in their own right. They concluded the regular season with seven straight wins, and they have looked virtually unstoppable during the tournament.

During their postseason run, the Huskies’ average margin of victory has been a whopping 25 points per game. Just like Purdue, UConn is getting the job done at the defensive end of the floor as well, holding the opposition to 57.2 points per contest, which is six points lower than their regular season average of 63.5 PPG.

In their Final Four win against the Alabama Crimson Tide (86-72), Stephon Castle scored a team-high 21 points on 7-for-13 shooting from the field. He also accumulated five rebounds and two assists. 

Huskies big man, Donovan Clingan, chipped in with 18 points and five rebounds. He was also a solid defensive presence, blocking four shots.

Despite facing their toughest opponent in the tournament thus far, the Huskies finally pulled away in the second half, setting up a title game matchup against a Boilermakers squad that flamed out in the first round of last year’s tournament. 

“A battle of the giants. I think it’s just great for college basketball. Us and Purdue have clearly been the two best teams in the country the last two years,” Hurley said after the game. “I think it’s just great for college basketball to get the two big dogs playing on Monday.”

Will the Boilermakers bounce back from their disappointing first-round exit a year ago as a No. 1 seed, or will the Huskies roll to another dominant performance and cement themselves as one of the greatest collegiate back-to-back champions of all time?

Now that we have set the table for this title game matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

The defending champion Huskies opened as a 6.5-point favorite (per OddShark.com). At the time of this writing, the line has moved to seven points (via DraftKings). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Boilermakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five outings.
• Purdue is 6-2 ATS in the last instances in which they were the underdog.
• In their last five Monday road games, the Boilermakers are 4-1 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six contests.
• UConn is 7-0 ATS in their last seven April games.
• When playing as the favorite, the Huskies are an impressive 19-9 against the spread.

Prediction: UConn Huskies (-7)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 147.5 points. The line has moved to 145.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “UNDER” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Boilermakers’ last five games.

• In the Huskies’ last six contests, the UNDER total cashed in ALL six times.

• The UNDER total is 5-0 in UConn’s last five matchups against Big Ten Conference opponents.

• In The last five instances in which UConn has played as the favorite, the UNDER total prevailed each time. 

• Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 132.3 points per contest, which is 13.2 points fewer than the projected points total for this matchup (145.5).

Prediction: UNDER 145.5 points

Player Prop Bets

The Boilermakers’ big man Zach Edey has averaged at least 20 points and 10 rebounds during the tournament. Given those stats, he is the key player to watch for Purdue. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 24.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• During the season, Edey is averaging a career-best 24.9 points per game across 38 outings.
• In 21 home contests he has averaged 23.2 points per game.
• In 12 road contests, Edey is averaging 26.5 points per contest.
• Over his last 10 outings, he has averaged 28.5 points per outing.
• During his five tournament games, Edey is averaging 28 PPG and 15.4 RPG on 65.4 percent shooting from the field, exceeding the points total for this matchup all five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Zach Edey OVER 24.5 points

On the other side of the narrative, in a matchup in which a pair of big men will take center stage, the key player to watch for the defending champion UConn Huskies is Donovan Clingan. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 13.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 13.5 points. 

Will his season numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• During the season, Clingan averaged 13.1 points per game across 34 outings, nearly doubling his 6.9 PPG average from his freshman campaign.
• In 17 home contests he has averaged 14.6 points per game.
• In 12 road contests, Clingan is averaging 9.5 points per contest.
• Over his last 10 outings, he has averaged 14.2 points per outing.
• During his five tournament games, Clingan is averaging 16.2 PPG and 9.0 RPG on 64.8 percent shooting from the field, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Donovan Clingan OVER 13.5 points

James Tillman’s Purdue Boilermakers vs. UConn Huskies Picks

• The Spread: UConn Huskies (-6.5) OddShark
• Over/Under: UNDER 145.5 points (Pre-Game.com/Draft Kings)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Zach Edey OVER 24.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Donovan Clingan OVER 13.5 points