PHOENIX SUNS VS. NEW ORLEANS PELICANS ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR APRIL 1, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Phoenix Suns (43-31 SU, 30-42-2 ATS) taking on the New Orleans Pelicans (45-29 SU, 40-32-2 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Monday, April 1, 2024
  
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Smoothie King Center
  
• Location: New Orleans, LA
  
• TV: BSNO and AZ Family

Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans Odds (Via DraftKings)

Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans Odds – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Suns Catch Fire Down The Stretch?

Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 116.7 PPG – 10TH
  
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.9 points per 100 possessions – 9TH
  
• Scoring Defense: 116.1 PPG – 16T
  
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.3 points per 100 possessions – 13TH           

The Phoenix Suns have won six of their last 10 games. That is the good news. The bad news is they have dropped to the No. 8 spot in the conference playoff race. 

The Suns have been wildly inconsistent as of late. After trouncing the San Antonio Spurs 131-106 on March 23, they lost to the same Spurs team that was playing without its best player Victor — Wembanyama two nights later.

After knocking off the defending champion Denver Nuggets 104-97 on March 27, the Suns dropped a 128-103 decision to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night. It is worth mentioning that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sat out that game.

Kevin Durant was one of four Suns’ starters who scored in double figures against OKC. He led the way with 26 points on 10-for-17 shooting from the field while knocking down four of his seven attempts from beyond the arc. He also collected six rebounds.

Bradley Beal added 15 points and three assists, while Devin Booker contributed 14 points and five assists. The 25-point loss was the team’s second-largest defeat of the season. 

 “We’ve all got to own it and we’ve all got to be better, and we’ve all got to handle success better,” Vogel said, via CBS Sports. “It’s unacceptable to get blown out. These games are so important.”

The Suns are hoping to get out of the play-in spot. But with one of the league’s toughest schedules the rest of the way — a stretch that includes games against opponents that are at least 10 games above .500 — that could prove to be an arduous task. 

Can The Pelicans Avoid The Play-In Tournament?

New Orleans Pelicans Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 115.2 PPG – 13TH
  
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.4 points per 100 possessions – 12TH         
• Scoring Defense: 110.3 PPG – 8TH
  
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.4 points per 100 possessions – 4TH             

On the other side of this matchup, the New Orleans Pelicans are tied with the Dallas Mavericks for the sixth-best record in the Western Conference. But they lead the seventh-place Sacramento Kings by just two games in the standings.

Over their last 10 outings, the Pelicans have produced six wins. This includes a 104-92 defeat at the hands of the Boston Celtics on Saturday night. 

Zion Williamson paced the team’s offense with 25 points on 9-for-17 shooting from the field while missing seven of his 14 attempts from the charity stripe. He also tallied nine rebounds and four assists. 

CJ McCollum finished with 24 points and five assists while Herbert Jones contributed 18 points, five rebounds, and three assists. New Orleans trailed by just two points at the break, but the tone of the game changed in the second half.

Boston outscored the home team by a 24-11 margin in the third quarter. In addition to shooting 4-for-23 from the floor, New Orleans did not score over the final 4:37 of the period. 

The Pelicans own the fourth-best defense in the association, but they allowed the Celtics to shoot 47.6 percent from the field and 40.5 percent from beyond the arc. Another poor showing at that end of the floor will more than likely lead to a loss against the Suns. 

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

The Phoenix Suns opened as a one-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has not changed for the road team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Suns are 4-2 ATS in their last six outings.
• Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in its last seven matchups against New Orleans.
• The Suns are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 road contests.
• In its last six games against Southwest Division opponents, Phoenix is 1-5 against the spread.
• The Pelicans are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
• New Orleans is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 matchups against Pacific Division teams.
• In their last six Monday games, the Suns are 4-2 against the spread.

This season, the Suns have been installed as a one-point favorite or more 55 times. Their record against the spread is 22-31-2 in those games. 

On the other side of the narrative, the Pelicans have been a one-point underdog or more 29 times this season. In those contests, they are 17-11-1 against the spread.

With that in mind, I am going with the home team to cover here. 

Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans (+1)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 225 points. The line is holding steady at this threshold (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER 11 times in the Suns’ last 12 road games against New Orleans.
• In Phoenix’s 74 games, the OVER total has prevailed 49 times.
• The OVER total is 5-1 in the Pelicans’ last six matchups against the Suns.
• In New Orleans’ 74 contests this season, the OVER total cashed in 42 times.
• The two teams average a combined 231.9 points per contest, which is 6.9 points higher than the projected points total for this matchup.

Prediction: OVER 225 points

Player Prop Bets

Coming off a 26-point effort in his last outing, Kevin Durant is the key player to watch for the Suns. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 24.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• In 42 career games against the New Orleans Pelicans, he is averaging 26.5 points per contest.
• During the season, Durant is averaging 27.6 points per game across 67 outings.
• In 35 road contests, he is averaging 26.7 points per contest.
• Durant has played against Western Conference teams 40 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.6 points per outing.
• In 14 matchups against Southwest Division opponents, he is averaging 24.6 points per game.
• Durant has played on Monday night six times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 29.2 points per outing.
• Over his last 10 outings, Durant has averaged 23.2 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Kevin Durant OVER 24.5 points

Fresh off his 25-point, nine-rebound performance in the loss against the Celtics, Zion Williamson is the player to watch for the home team. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points. 

Do Williamson’s season numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• In seven career games against the Phoenix Suns, he is averaging 27.9 points per contest.
• This season, Williamson is averaging 22.8 points per game across 63 appearances.
• In 33 home contests, he is averaging 22.8 PPG.
• Williamson has played against Western Conference teams 37 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 22.9 points per outing.
• In 10 Monday night appearances this season, Williamson is averaging 22.3 PPG.
• In 13 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, he is averaging 22.4 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Williamson has averaged 26.3 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup six times during that stretch.

Prediction: Zion Williamson UNDER 26.5 points

James Tillman’s Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans Picks

• The Spread: New Orleans Pelicans (+1) OddShark
• Over/Under: OVER 225 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Kevin Durant OVER 24.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Zion Williamson UNDER 26.5 points