PHOENIX SUNS VS. MIAMI HEAT ODDS AND PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 29, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Phoenix Suns (26-20 SU, 16-28-2 ATS) taking on the Miami Heat (24-22 SU, 19-26-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Monday, January 29, 2024
  
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
  
• Where: Kaseya Center
  
• Location: Miami, Florida
  
• TV: NBA TV, BSSUN, and AZ Family

Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat Odds (Via DraftKings)

Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Suns End Their Two-Game Skid Against The Heat?

Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 116.4 PPG – 13TH      
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.0 points per 100 possessions – 11TH          
• Scoring Defense: 114.4 PPG – 15TH         
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.0 points per 100 possessions – 16TH    

The Suns went on a hot streak during a two-week period in which they won seven consecutive games. However, they have dropped each of their last two games, including a 113-88 loss to the Orlando Magic on Sunday night. 

Devin Booker led all scorers with 44 points on 17-for-26 shooting from the floor. He also tallied four rebounds and three assists. 

Kevin Durant – the only other Suns player to score in double figures – contributed 15 points, five assists, and four rebounds. 

The Suns jumped out to a 13-point lead in the first half and led by a slim 85-82 margin going into the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, the last 12 minutes would be a different story as Orlando outscored them by a 31 to 13 margin en route to a double-digit victory. 

“A lot of teams aren’t built the way they are. They’re a massive team,” Phoenix coach Frank Vogel said, via ESPN. “You can attack them if you do it the right way. We didn’t do it well enough or handle their pressure well enough tonight.”

Phoenix shot just 5-for-18 in the final frame while committing seven turnovers. Not only that, but Orlando limited the road team to just four points during the game’s final 10 minutes. 

The Suns are hoping to get back on track against a Heat team that has had its share of recent struggles as well.

Can The Snap Their Six-Game Losing Skid?

Miami Heat Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 110.5 PPG – 27TH 
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.8 points per 100 possessions – 21ST          
• Scoring Defense: 111.6 PPG – 7TH     
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.0 points per 100 possessions – 14TH    

On the other side of this matchup, the Miami Heat have dropped to the seventh spot in the Eastern Conference and have not been playing well as of late. In addition to producing just three wins across their last 10 outings, the Heat enter this matchup on a season-high six-game losing streak.

This includes a 125-109 loss to the New York Knicks on Saturday afternoon. Jimmy Butler scored a team-high 28 points on 11-for-20 shooting from the floor. He also had four rebounds, two assists, and two blocked shots.  

Tyler Herro added 18 points and three assists. Bam Adebayo contributed 12 and 13 rebounds. Despite trailing by 13 points, Miami got within three points going into the final period. 

As was the case with the Suns, the Heat kind of imploded in the fourth quarter. New York outscored them 36-23, turning a once-competitive contest into an easy victory. 

“Our turnovers for the game were OK, but it felt like we had probably four or five big ones in that fourth quarter and then defensively I don’t remember us getting a stop,” Spoelstra said after the game.

In terms of getting stops, as Spoelstra mentioned, the Knicks shot a blistering 13-for-18 from the floor (72 percent) in the final 12 minutes to put the game out of reach.

With all of its top scorers back in the lineup, Miami will need to bring its “A” game against a Suns team that can put up points in bunches.  

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let us look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

Surprisingly, the Heat opened as a consensus four-point favorite for this matchup. At the time of this writing, the line has not changed for the home team (per pre-game.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Suns are 6-13-1 in their last 20 games overall.
• Phoenix is 6-2 ATS in its last eight matchups against the Heat.
• In their last five road games against Miami, the Suns are 5-0 against the spread.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six contests.
• In its last five January games, Miami is 0-5 against the spread.

Based on the above trends, going with the road team to cover is the best option.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns (+4)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 229 points. Here is why going with the “UNDER” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone UNDER six times in the Suns’ last seven games.
• The UNDER total has prevailed eight times in Phoenix’s last 12 road contests.
• In the Suns’ last six games against Eastern Conference opponents, the UNDER total has won five times. 
• The total has gone UNDER seven times in the Heat’s last nine games.
• In Miami’s last seven games against Phoenix, the UNDER total cashed in five times.
• The UNDER total has hit four times in the Heat’s last five home games.
• In Miami’s last 16 games against teams in the Western Conference, the UNDER total prevailed 12 times.

Prediction: UNDER 229 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player for the road team is Devin Booker. He currently has +100 odds of scoring more than 30.5 points and +130 odds of finishing with less than 30.5 points. Here is a look at how his numbers compare with the projected points total. 

• In 15 career games against the Heat, Booker is averaging 23.7 PPG.
• On the season, Booker is averaging 28.6 points per outing. 
• In 17 road contests, he is averaging 31.6 PPG.

• Booker has played 12 times against Eastern Conference teams. In those contests, he is averaging 29.1 points per outing.
• Booker has played four times on a Monday this season. The Suns’ All-Star guard is averaging 16.5 points per game. 
• During the month of January, he is averaging 31.1 PPG, exceeding the points total for this matchup seven times during that stretch.

Based on his recent body of work, going with the “over” for Booker is the smart choice here.

Prediction: Devin Booker OVER 30.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Jimmy Butler. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -110 odds of scoring less than 20.5 points. Let us see how his season splits stack up against the projected points total. 

• Jimmy Butler has played against the Suns 21 times in his career. In those contests, he has averaged 18.8 points per game.
• On the season, the Butler is averaging 21 points per outing. 

• In 15 home games, he is averaging 22.9 PPG.
• Butler has played against Western Conference teams six times this season. In those contests, he is averaging just 16.7 points per outing.
• In his lone outing against a Pacific Division opponent, he scored 28 points in that contest.
• Butler has played in Monday night games this season. In those games, he is averaging 21 points per contest.
• During the month of January – a sample size of seven games — Butler is averaging 21 PPG, exceeding the points total three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jimmy Butler OVER 20.5 points

James’s Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat Picks

• The Spread: Phoenix Suns (+4)
  
• Over/Under: UNDER 229 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Devin Booker Over 30.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 points