PHOENIX SUNS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS – ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 24, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from Wednesday’s slate features the Phoenix Suns (25-18 SU, 15-26-2 ATS) taking on the Dallas Mavericks (24-19 SU, 23-20 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Wednesday, January 24, 2024
  
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
  
• Where: American Airlines Center
  
• Location: Dallas, Texas
  
• TV: ABC, BSSW, and AZ Family

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds (Via DraftKings)

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Suns Push Their Winning Streak To Seven Games?

Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 116.1 PPG – 13TH       
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.9 points per 100 possessions – 10TH         
• Scoring Defense: 114.2 PPG – 15TH         
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.9 points per 100 possessions – 16TH    

Following a somewhat slow start, the Suns find themselves right in the thick of the conference playoff race out west. They currently hold a slim half-game lead for the No. 6 spot. They have gone 7-3 across their last 10 outings. 

Not only that, but they have also come into this matchup riding a six-game winning streak – their second-highest winning streak total this season. In their last outing, the Suns defeated the Chicago Bulls 115-113 on Monday night. 

Kevin Durant led all scorers with 43 points (including the game-winning basket) on 16-for-32 shooting from the floor. He also tallied eight assists and six rebounds.

“I know these games are high stakes and there’s a lot on the line,” Durant said, via ESPN. “But at the end of the day, it’s still hoop.”

Bradley Beal added 18 points, five dimes, and four boards. Devin Booker – who attempted just 11 shots – added 16 points, five assists, and four rebounds.

The Suns outscored the Bulls 66-47 in the second, erasing a 23-point deficit in the process. This team can ill afford that kind of effort if it wants to extend its winning streak. 

Can The Mavericks Cool Off The Suns?

Dallas Mavericks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.3 PPG – 8TH     
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.8 points per 100 possessions – 11TH       
• Scoring Defense: 117.4 PPG – 20TH       
• Defensive Efficiency: 117.0 points per 100 possessions – 18TH      

Meanwhile, the Mavericks currently occupy the No. 8 spot in the conference playoff race, and they are 5-5 in their last 10 outings. This includes a 119-110 loss to the Boston Celtics on Monday night. 

Although Luka Doncic did not shoot the ball particularly well (12-for-30 shooting), he scored 33 points, hauled in 18 rebounds, handed out 13 assists, and recorded two steals as well. Doncic expressed his frustration with the officiating crew more than once during the game.

“We’ve been inconsistent in that department where we can get caught up with the officials instead of just staying focused on the game,” Dallas coach Jason Kidd said after the game. “No one’s going to be perfect, from player to official to coach. So, you’ve got to just continue doing your job. I thought we got frustrated, and they took advantage of that.”

Kyrie Irving added 23 points, six rebounds, and three assists, while Josh Green contributed 14 points and seven rebounds. Doncic and Irving shot a combined 21-for-50 from the field against Boston. 

If the Mavericks’ talented backcourt can suit up, they will need to be more efficient against a Suns team that is clicking on all cylinders right now. 

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let us look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Suns opened at a 1.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to two points for the road team.

Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Suns are an abysmal 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games.
• Phoenix is 1-6 ATS in its last five matchups against the Mavericks.
• The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against Dallas.
• The Mavericks are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
• Dallas is 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games at American Airlines Arena.
• The Suns are 8-9-1 ATS as the road team, while the Mavericks are 11-12 ATS at home.

Based on these trends, neither team has fared well against the spread this season. With that in mind, going with the team that has won six straight to cover a small spread is a wise choice here. 

Prediction: Phoenix Suns (-2)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 241 points. The line recently moved to 240.5 points (via pre-game.com). Here is why going with the “UNDER” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Suns’ last six games.
• The UNDER total has prevailed four times in Phoenix’s last five January games.
• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Mavericks’ last seven games.
• In Dallas’s last 10 matchups against Phoenix, the UNDER total cashed in seven times.
• The UNDER total has won four times in the Mavericks’ last five games against Western Conference opponents. 

Prediction: UNDER 240.5 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Kevin Durant. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points (Via DraftKings). Here is a closer look at how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Durant is averaging 29.6 points per outing. 

• In 16 road games, he is averaging 30.1 PPG.
• Durant has played against Western Conference teams 25 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 28.7 points per outing.
• In seven matchups against Southwest Division teams, he is averaging 24.7 PPG.
• Over his last 10 games, Durant is averaging 28 points per game, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Going with the “under” for Durant is the best option based on the above trends.

Prediction: Kevin Durant UNDER 29.5 points

With both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving listed as questionable, the player to watch for the home team is Tim Hardaway Jr. His estimated scoring total for this contest is 21.2 (Via OddShark) Let’s see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Hardaway is averaging 18.2 points per outing. 
• In 21 home games, he is averaging 19.3 PPG.
• Hardaway has played against Western Conference teams 30 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 17.2 points per outing.
• In nine matchups against Pacific Division teams, Hardaway is averaging 16.6 PPG.
• Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 18.9 points per outing, exceeding the projected points total for this matchup five times during that stretch. 

Given the above trends, going with the “under” for Hardaway is the best option.

Prediction: Tim Hardaway Jr. UNDER 21.2 points

James’s Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks

• The Spread: Phoenix Suns (-2)
• Over/Under: Under 240.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Kevin Durant Under 29.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Tim Hardaway Jr. Under 21.2 points