OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. DENVER NUGGETS – ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR DECEMBER 29, 2023

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on the tap from Friday night’s slate features the Oklahoma City Thunder (20-9 SU, 20-8-1 ATS) taking on the Denver Nuggets (23-10 SU, 15-17-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Friday, December 29, 2023 at 9:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Ball Arena, DENVER, CO
  
• TV: ALT and Bally Sports OK

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Odds (via DraftKings) 

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

OKC Thunder Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 121.3 PPG – 5TH  
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.9 PPOHP – 6TH  
• Scoring Defense: 113.6 PPG – 14TH   
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.3 PPOHP – 6th 

*PPOHP (Points Per One Hundred Possessions)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have posted seven victories in their last 10 outings. This includes a 129-120 win against the New York Knicks on Wednesday night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paced OKC with a stat line of 36 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds. Jalen Williams tallied 36 points and three assists on 13-for-17 shooting from the field and a perfect 5-for-5 effort from 3-point range. Chet Holmgren added 22 points and five rebounds. 

Denver Nuggets Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 115.9 PPG – 13TH   
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.3 PPOHP – 7TH    
• Scoring Defense: 110.0 PPG – 3rd    
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.2 PPHOP –8TH   

*PPOHP (Points Per One Hundred Possessions)

Meanwhile, the defending champion Denver Nuggets are on fire right now. They are 9-1 across their last 10 outings. Not only that, but they have also won each of their last six decisions, including a 142-105 victory against the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday night. 

Nikola Jokic finished with 26 rebounds, 14 rebounds, and 10 assists. This is his 12th triple-double of the season. In addition to that, Jokic shot a perfect 11-for-11 from the field and 3-for-3 from the charity stripe. Jamal Murray chipped in with 23 points (on 9-for-12 shooting), nine assists, and three rebounds. Peyton Watson contributed 20 points, five rebounds and two assists. 

Overall, Denver shot 57 percent from the field, while connecting on 20 of their 41 attempts from beyond the arc. They are hoping to continue their hot streak against a Thunder team that is playing well this season. 

Now, let us look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Denver Nuggets opened as a 3.5-point favorite in this matchup. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to three points for the home team. Here is a quick glimpse at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• • The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
  • OKC is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against Denver.
  • The Thunder are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road contests.

• Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six road games against the Nuggets.
• The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• Denver is 12-6 ATS in the last 18 games they played on a Friday.

Based on the above trends, taking the road team to cover is a wise choice.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder (+3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 230 points. The line has moved to 234.5 points, with the “over” garnering 100 percent of the cash and 95 percent of the tickets (per pre-game.com). Here is a look at how both teams have performed with the over/under total this season. 

• The total has gone OVER four times in OKC’s last five outings.
• The OVER total hit seven times for the Thunder in their last nine December games.
• The UNDER total has won six times in the Nuggets’ last eight contests. 
• The total has gone UNDER five times in Denver’s last six matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• In the Nuggets’ last six games against teams in the Northwest Division, the UNDER total has prevailed five times.

Based on these trends, going with the “UNDER” looks like the better choice in this matchup

Prediction: UNDER 234.5 points

Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He currently has -135 odds of scoring more than 32.5 points and +105 odds of scoring less than 32.5 points.

• In 18 career games against the Nuggets, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 18.5 points per contest. 
• On the season, he is averaging 31.1 points per outing.
• In 12 road games, SGA is averaging 31.3 PPG.
• Gilgeous-Alexander has played against Western Conference teams 20 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 29.8 PPG.
• In the three games he has played on a Friday night, his points-per-game average is 35.0.
• During December – a sample size of 11 games — Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.9 PPG.
• In two regular-season matchups against the Nuggets this season, SGA is averaging 16 points per contest.

As the trends seem to indicate, going with the “under” for Gilgeous-Alexander looks like the better choice here.

Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 32.5 points

The key player to watch for the Denver Nuggets is Nikola Jokic. He currently has -140 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and +110 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points. Here is a closer look at how his season splits compare with the projected scoring total for this matchup. 

• In 30 games career games against Oklahoma City, Jokic is averaging 21.4 points per contest. 
• On the season, he is averaging 26.3 points per outing, which is just slightly below the projected total in this matchup.
• In 15 home games, Jokic is averaging 28.2 PPG.
• Nikola Jokic has played against Western Conference teams 22 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 28.3 PPG.
• In the seven games he has played on a Friday, his points-per-game average is 27.7.

Based on the above trends, going with “over” for Jokic is a safe bet here.

Prediction: Nikola Jokic OVER 26.5 points

James’s Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Picks

• The Spread: OKC Thunder (+3.5)

• Over/Under: UNDER 234.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 32.5 points
• Player Prop Bet#2: Nikola Jokic OVER 26.5 points