NEW YORK KNICKS VS. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR MARCH 18, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the New York Knicks (40-27 SU, 35-31-1 ATS) taking on the Golden State Warriors (35-31 SU, 37-29 ATS) for the second and final time this season.

In a battle between two teams looking to strengthen their playoff position down the stretch, here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Monday, March 18, 2024
  
• Time: 10:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Chase Center
  
• Location: San Francisco, CA
  
• TV: ESPN, NBCS-BA, and MSG

New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors Odds (Via DraftKings)

New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Knicks Avenge Their Previous Loss Against The Warriors?

New York Knicks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 111.9 PPG – 24TH                  
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.1 points per 100 possessions – 14TH                     
• Scoring Defense: 107.8 PPG – 2ND                    
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.9 points per 100 possessions – 8TH          

The New York Knicks have the fourth-best record in the Eastern Conference and lead the fifth-place Orlando Magic by just a half-game in the standings. In their last 10 outings, the Knicks have produced six wins, and they enter this matchup riding the wave of a three-game winning streak. 

This includes wins over the Philadelphia 76ers (106-79), Portland Trail Blazers (105-93) and the Sacramento Kings (98-91). In that contest, Jalen Brunson set the tone for the team’s offense as he scored 42 points on 17-for-28 shooting and 5-for-10 from beyond the arc. He also collected four rebounds as well. 

It was Brunson’s second straight 40-point performance as he torched the Trail Blazers for 45 points. 

“You almost come to expect what Jalen did,” Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau said via ESPN. “It’s every night and it’s big play after big play. Every time you need a big bucket, he comes up with it.”

Donte DiVincenzo added 15 points, but he shot just 5-for-16 from the floor, including a 3-for-12 effort from 3-point range. Alec Burks contributed 12 points and three rebounds off the bench. 

While the Knicks shot 43 percent and 28.2 percent from long range, their defense against the Kings was solid. They held the road team to 35.3 percent shooting and 27 percent from the 3-point line. The 91-point total was the Kings’ lowest scoring output in a home game this season. 

Not only that, but New York has held its opponents to under 100 points in six of its last seven outings. With that in mind, they are hoping a solid effort at that end of the floor will help them avenge a 110-99 loss to the Warriors when these teams clashed back on Feb. 29. 

Can The Warriors Sweep The Season Series?

Golden State Warriors Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.4 PPG – 7TH            
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.8 points per 100 possessions – 11TH              
• Scoring Defense: 116.8 PPG – 19TH                   
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.0 points per 100 possessions – 15TH           

After finishing with the sixth-best record last season, the Golden State Warriors find themselves fighting for one of the remaining play-in tournament spots this season. They have the ninth-best record out west but are ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers by a percentage point. 

In their last 10 outings, the Dubs have posted six wins during that stretch. This includes a crucial 128-121 win over the Lakers on Saturday night. Five players reached double figures in that game. Stephen Curry – who had missed the team’s previous three outings with an ankle injury — scored a team-high 31 points to go along with six rebounds and five assists. 

“Steph is Steph. He’s just amazing,” coach Steve Kerr said after the game. “He got off to a slow start, but he never worries, and we never worry. What he does is open the floor for everyone else.”

Klay Thompson added 26 points and four rebounds off the bench while connecting on five of his 10 attempts from beyond the arc. Jonathan Kuminga finished with 23 points, while Anthony Wiggins contributed 16 points and six rebounds. 

Ironically, the Warriors’ 14 made three-point field goals against the Lakers matched their total against New York when these teams met a few weeks ago. Needless to say, the defensively challenged Warriors are hoping for a similar effort this time around, as they look to sweep the season series. 

Now that we have set the table for this pivotal matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

The Golden State Warriors opened as a 3.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 4.5 for the home team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Knicks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 contests.
• New York is 2-4 ATS in its last six matchups against Golden State.
• In their last eight games against Western Conference opponents, the Knicks are just 1-7 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Warriors are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 outings.
• Golden State is 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Atlantic Division teams.
• In their last five Monday games, the Warriors are 4-1 against the spread.

As you can see from the above trends, The Warriors have a strong record against the spread this season. Additionally, the Knicks are 3-7-1 against the spread in the 11 games in which they have been an underdog by 4.5 or more points. With that in mind, going with the home team to cover looks like the safe bet here. 

Prediction: Golden State Warriors (-4.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 216 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 211 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone UNDER in each of the Knicks’ last five games.
• The UNDER total is 8-1 in the Knicks’ last nine road outings.
• In New York’s last five matchups against Pacific Division opponents, the UNDER total won four times.
• The UNDER total has prevailed 10 times in the Warriors’ last 13 games.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in Golden State’s last six matchups against New York.
• In the Warriors’ last 10 games against Eastern Conference teams, the UNDER total cashed in nine times.

Prediction: UNDER 211 points

Player Prop Bets

Fresh off his second consecutive 40-point outing, the key player to watch for the road team is Jalen Brunson. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 30.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 30.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• In 16 career games against the Golden State Warriors, he is averaging 13.6 points per contest.
• On the season, Brunson is averaging 27.5 points per game across 62 outings.
• In 31 road contests, he is averaging 27.5 points per contest.
• Brunson has played against Western Conference teams 22 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.1 points per outing.
• In eight matchups against Pacific Division opponents, Brunson is averaging 31 points per game.
• Brunson has played on Monday night 10 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 25.6 points per outing.
• Over his last 10 outings, Brunson has averaged 26.9 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jalen Brunson UNDER 30.5 points

On the heels of his 31-point outburst against the Lakers, the key player to watch for the Warriors is Stephen Curry. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points. 

Will Curry’s season numbers favorably compare against the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• In 24 career games against the New York Knicks, he is averaging 25.7 points per contest.
• This season, Curry is averaging 27 points per game across 60 appearances.
• In 31 home contests, he is averaging 28 PPG.
• Curry has played against Eastern Conference teams 24 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 26.8 points per outing.
• In seven Monday night appearances this season, Curry is averaging 29.4 PPG.
• In nine matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, he is averaging 23.8 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Curry has averaged 22.0 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Based on these trends, going with the “over” for Curry would be the best option here. 

Prediction: Stephen Curry OVER 26.5 points

James Tillman’s New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors Picks

• The Spread: Golden State Warriors (+4.5)
• Over/Under: UNDER 211 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Jalen Brunson UNDER 30.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Stephen Curry OVER 26.5 points