MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER – ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR DECEMBER 26, 2023

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on the tap from Tuesday night’s slate features the Minnesota Timberwolves (22-6 SU, 15-12-2 ATS) taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder (18-9 SU, 18-8-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 8:00 PM ET*
  
• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
  
• TV: BSOK and BSN

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Odds (via DraftKings)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Bucks Odds – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Minnesota Timberwolves Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 113.5 PPG – 18th
  
• Offensive Efficiency: 114.7 PPOHP – 17th
  
• Scoring Defense: 106.6 PPG – 1st
  
• Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 PPOHP – 1st  

*PPOHP (points per one hundred possessions)

The Minnesota Timberwolves enter this matchup with eight wins across their last 10 outings, with wins in each of their last two contests. This includes a 110-98 victory against the Sacramento Kings on Saturday night. 

Anthony Edwards paced Minnesota with 34 points, 10 assists, and five rebounds. Rudy Gobert – one of the front-runners for the Defensive Player of the Year – added 21 points, 17 rebounds, and two blocked shots. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.7 PPG – 5th
  
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.2 PPOHP – 6th
  
• Scoring Defense: 113.6 PPG – 14th
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.2 PPHOP –6th

*PPOHP (points per one hundred possessions)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have produced seven wins in their last 10 decisions. In the team’s recent outing, they were defeated by the Los Angeles Lakers 129-120 on Saturday night. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a team-high 34 points to go along with seven assists, five rebounds, and three steals. Jalen Williams contributed 28 points, six rebounds, and three assists. 

Now, let us dive deeply into the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Oklahoma City Thunder opened as a consensus four-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 3.5. (via pre-game.com). Here are a few reasons why going with the Thunder to cover is the best option.

• The Thunder are 18-8-1 ATS while the Timberwolves are 15-12-1. 
• Oklahoma City is an impressive 12-4 ATS when it plays as the favorite.
• The Thunder are 10-5 ATS at home, while Minnesota is 7-8 ATS on the road. 
• OKC is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall. 
• The Thunder are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games that were played on a Tuesday.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 225.5 points. The line has moved to 227.5 points, with the “over” garnering 73 percent of the cash and 71 percent of the tickets. Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the over/under during the season. 

• The UNDER total has cashed in five times In Minnesota’s last six contests against Northwest Division opponents.

• In Minnesota’s last 15 games, the total has gone OVER 10 times.
• The OVER total has won out five times in OKC’s last seven games.
• The total has gone UNDER for the Thunder six times in its last seven matchups against Minnesota.
• The total has gone OVER six times in OKC’s last seven home games.
• In the Thunder’s last eight contests against Northwest Division teams, the UNDER total has prevailed six times.

As the above trends indicate, this one is tough to call. With that in mind, I am going to use the last few head-to-head matchups as the tiebreaker. In the past five meetings between these teams, the final score exceeded the projected points total for this matchup just once. That said, I would lean towards the “under” here. 

Prediction: UNDER 227.5 points

Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Anthony Edwards. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 28.5 points and -125 odds of scoring less than 28.5 points. Let us look at how his season splits compare against the projected points total. 

• In 11 career games against the Thunder, Edwards is averaging 19.5 PPG.
• On the season, Edwards is averaging 25.2 points per contest.
• In 13 road games, he is averaging 23.1 PPG.
• Edwards has played 16 times against Western Conference teams. He is averaging 22.8 points per outing.
• During December (eight games), he is averaging 22.9 points per contest.
• In the two instances in which he has played on a Tuesday, Edwards is averaging 20.5 PPG.
• Over his last 10 games, Edwards is averaging 26.3 PPG.

Based on the trends, taking the “under” for Edwards looks like the safest bet to make. 

Prediction: Anthony Edwards UNDER 28.5 points

My key player for the Thunder is Shai-Gilgeous Alexander. He currently has -135 odds of scoring more than 33.5 points and +105 of scoring less than 33.5 points.

• On the season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.8 points per contest.
• In 14 home games, he is averaging 30.5 PPG.
• Gilgeous-Alexander has played 19 times against Western Conference teams. He is averaging 29.5 points per outing.
• In December (a sample size of nine games), he is averaging 31.2 points per contest.
• In the two instances in which he has played on a Tuesday, SGA is averaging 30 points per outing.
• Over his last 10 games, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.4 points per contest.

Based on the above trends, taking the “under” for Gilgeous-Alexander is the wise choice here.

Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 33.5 points

James’s Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Picks

• The Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5)
• Over/Under: UNDER 227.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Anthony Edwards UNDER 28.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 33.5 points