MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS & PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 28, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Minnesota Timberwolves (64-32 SU, 48-47-1 ATS) taking on the Dallas Mavericks (61-36 SU, 58-39 ATS). 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Tuesday, May 28, 2024
  
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
  
• Where: American Airlines Center
  
• Location: Dallas, TX
  
• TV: TNT

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds (Via DraftKings) 

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

The Mavericks took the first two road games of a playoff series for the first time during their postseason run. The result was them leading 2-0 in a playoff series for the first time under third-year coach Jason Kidd. Coming into Game 3, the team wanted to be careful about letting its guard down, especially since Luka Doncic’s status was questionable. 

Fortunately, Doncic did play, and he was an integral part of the team’s 116-107 win over the Timberwolves, which extended the Mavericks’ series lead to 3-0. Doncic tied for team-high scoring honors with 33 points on 10-for-20 shooting from the field and 5-for-11 from beyond the arc. He also tallied seven boards, five assists, and five steals.

Kyrie Irving also had 33 points, along with four assists and three rebounds. He shot 12-for-20 overall and 3-for-6 from long range. P.J. Washington Jr. finished with 16 points and eight rebounds for a Mavericks squad that was 55.9 percent from the floor and an above-average 50 percent conversion rate from 3-point range. 

Trailing 104-102 with five minutes left in regulation, the Mavericks finished the game on a decisive 14-3 run in which they shot a perfect 5-for-5 from the floor while holding Minnesota to just 1-for-8 shooting during that stretch. 

When reminded that no team has ever rallied from a 0-3 deficit, Doncic refused to be complacent. 

“Don’t even say it. But we’ve got to think about the next game. Gotta play with the same mentality. They’re not going to go away. No way.”

While it is respectful of Doncic not to look too far ahead, teams that have held a 3-0 lead in a playoff series are 154-0 all-time. Given that fact, Dallas will more than likely punch its ticket to the NBA Finals for just the third time in franchise history. 

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves find themselves in an unenviable situation. Although the games could have gone either way, Minnesota is now just one loss away from ending its memorable season. 

In the team’s Game 3 defeat, Anthony Edwards had a near triple-double with 26 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. But after helping Minnesota pull even at 75 in the third quarter, he attempted just three shots the rest of the way. 

Karl-Anthony Towns had another subpar performance. He finished with 14 points on a woeful 5-for-18 shooting overall, and he missed each of eight attempts from distance. In this conference final matchup against Dallas, KAT is 15-for-54 overall and just 3-for-22 from 3-point range. 

But while Minnesota’s superstar duo has not performed as well as the Mavericks duo of Doncic and Irving, that is not the only unfortunate trend in this series. All three games have been close, but the Timberwolves’ inability to make plays down the stretch has doomed them on more than one occasion. 

In Game 2, the Timberwolves led by 18 points in the first half and by a five-point margin with 90 seconds left to play. They went on to lose that game courtesy of a 3-point dagger by Doncic. Leading by a basket with five minutes to go in Game 3, Minnesota produced only three points the rest of the way, enabling the Mavericks to coast to a nine-point victory. 

“You’ve got to try to score alongside of them,” Wolves coach Chris Finch said after the game. “The whole series, we’ve struggled to close games. These three-minutes games that we’re playing, we’re losing.”

Give Minnesota credit for not hanging their heads on the heels of a devastating loss. As was the case in Game 3, the road team will keep the game competitive. But when it’s all said and done, the better team has won these close games during the series, and that will continue in Game 4.

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

Despite taking a commanding 3-0 lead in the series, the Mavericks come into this matchup as a slight three-point favorite (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Timberwolves are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
• Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six contests against Dallas.
• In their last 14 road games, the Timberwolves are 10-4 against the spread.
• The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five outings.
• Dallas is 6-2 ATS in their last eight matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• In their last eight outings against teams in the Northwest Division, the Mavericks are 6-2 against the spread.

The Mavericks have been favored to win by three points or more 42 times this season. Their against-the-spread record in those contests is 27-15. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are 7-6 against the spread when playing as an underdog of three points or more.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks (-3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 210 points, and the line has not moved to at the time of this writing (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER six times in the Timberwolves’ last eight games.
• In Minnesota’s last 17 matchups against teams in the Western Conference, the OVER total cashed in 12 times.
• The OVER total has a perfect 5-0 record in the Timberwolves’ last five matchups against Southwest Division opponents.
• The total has gone OVER four times in the Mavericks’ last five outings.
• In the Mavericks’ last 13 May games, the OVER total is 9-4. 
• Dallas and Minnesota average a combined 230.9 points per game, which is 20.9 more than the over/under.
• The Mavericks and Timberwolves’ opponents average a combined 221.1 points per contest, which is 11.1 points higher than the estimated total of 210 for this matchup.

Prediction: OVER 210 points

Player Prop Bets

Anthony Edwards is Minnesota’s unquestioned superstar. But he has not gotten much help from his All-Star teammate, Karl-Anthony Towns, who has had more shot attempts than points in every game of this series. 

If Minnesota is to avoid getting swept, it will need a huge outing from KAT. With that in mind, he is my key player to watch in this contest. He currently has +100 odds of scoring more than 19.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 19.5 points (via DraftKings—Note: Odds Subject To Change).

Do Towns’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• Towns is averaging 26.3 points per contest across 76 regular season and playoff games.
• In seven games against the Mavericks this season, he has averaged 18.4 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Towns is averaging 18.0 points per outing.
• KAT has suited up against Western Conference teams 53 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 19.6 points per outing.
• In 20 matchups against Southwest Division opponents, the Timberwolves big man is averaging 19.4 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Towns has averaged 17.5 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 19.5 points

On the other side, Luka Doncic has played exceptionally well in this series, and I will continue to go with him as the key player to watch for Dallas in this potential closeout game. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 30.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 30.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• Doncic is averaging 32.9 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In five matchups against Minnesota this season, he has averaged 34.2 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 28.3 points per outing.
• Doncic has played against Western Conference teams 57 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 31.9 points per outing.
• In 23 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, the Mavericks guard is averaging 31.8 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Doncic has averaged 27.4 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Luka Doncic OVER 30.5 points

James Tillman’s Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Game 4 Picks

• The Spread: Dallas Mavericks (-3) OddShark
• Over/Under: OVER 210 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 19.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Luka Doncic OVER 30.5 points