MINNESOTA LYNX VS. LAS VEGAS ACES ODDS AND PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 11, 2024 – BY JAMES TILLMAN III

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap for tonight features the Minnesota Lynx (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS) taking on the Las Vegas Aces (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS). 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Tuesday, June 11, 2024
  
• Time: 10:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena
  
• Location: Las Vegas, NV
  
• TV: NBA TV, Silver State Sports & Entertainment Network, and BSNX

Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Odds (Via DraftKings)

Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces – In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Lynx Hold Their Own Against The Defending Champs?

Minnesota Lynx Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 85.5 PPG – 3RD
  
• Offensive Rating: 105.0 Points Per 100 Possessions – 3RD
  
• Scoring Defense: 75.1 PPG – 2ND
  
• Defensive Rating: 92.3 Points Per 100 Possessions – 1ST  

The Minnesota Lynx are off to a solid start this season. They began the 2024 campaign with four wins across their first six outings. Since that time, they have posted four wins in their last five contests. 

This includes an 83-64 victory against the Seattle Storm on Sunday night. Kayla McBride paced the team’s offense with 32 points on 9-for-13 shooting overall and a 7-for-10 effort from beyond the arc. 

Napheesa Collier finished with a double-double that included 19 points and 14 rebounds, while Bridget Carleton finished with 13 points and three assists. 

The Storm led this game 41-35 at the break, but Minnesota ratcheted up its defensive intensity in the second half, outscoring Seattle by a 47-23 margin, including a 24-12 advantage in the final frame. Additionally, Seattle shot just 34.7 percent from the floor and connected on just four of its 22 attempts from 3-point range (18.2 percent). 

This marked the third time the Lynx had defeated the Storm this season. 

Can The Las Vegas Aces Snap Their Two-Game Losing Streak?

Las Vegas Aces Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 85.7 PPG – 2ND
  
• Offensive Rating: 105.3 Points Per 100 Possessions – 2ND
  
• Scoring Defense: 82.1 PPG – 7TH
  
• Defensive Rating: 101.0 Points Per 100 Possessions – 7TH   

Meanwhile, like their opponent, the Las Vegas Aces began the season with a good start as well, producing four wins in their first five outings. However, things have gone south a bit since that time. The defending champions have dropped three of their last four games and come into this matchup on the heels of back-to-back losses against the Storm (78-65) on June 7, and the Los Angeles Sparks (96-92) on Sunday night. 

In their loss to the Sparks, A’ja Wilson led the way with 31 points (three points above her league-leading scoring average) along with eight rebounds, five assists and two steals. She shot 10-for-17 from the field, 9-for-11 from the charity stripe, and knocked down both of her 3-point attempts. 

Kelsey Plum added 24 points and five assists, but she shot just 7-for-22 from the field. Kate Martin contributed 13 points on 5-for-7 shooting, along with four rebounds, and three assists. 

Las Vegas scored the first 14 points of this contest but led by a slim 44-43 margin at the break. But thanks to a 17-4 run, the Sparks took a 74-65 advantage into the final frame. The Aces overcame the nine-point deficit to take an 82-78 lead with 4:47 left in regulation.

However, the Sparks responded with five quick points, courtesy of a layup by Rickea Jackson and a three-pointer from Rae Burrell, to give Los Angeles an 83-82 lead they would not relinquish.

Can the Aces snap their losing skid against a Minnesota team that is ranked third in scoring offense and efficiency, and boasts the league’s top defense?

Now that we have set the stage for this Western Conference showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

Despite their two-game slide, the Aces opened as an eight-point favorite. But the line has moved to 6.5 points, at the time of this writing (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Aces are 3-6 ATS in their last nine outings.
• Las Vegas is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
• The Aces are 5-0 ATS in their last five matchups against Minnesota.
• In their last 20 home games against the Lynx, Las Vegas is 6-13-1 against the spread.
• The Lynx are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.
• Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests.
• In their last 15 road matchups against Las Vegas, Minnesota is 10-5 against the spread.

Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (+6.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 165 points (per BleacherNation.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Aces’ last six games against Minnesota.
• The UNDER total is 4-2 in the Lynx’s last six contests.
• The total has gone UNDER six times in Minnesota’s last eight road outings.
• In the Lynx’s last six matchups against Las Vegas, the UNDER total has prevailed four times.

Prediction: UNDER 165 points

Player Prop Bets

Although Kayla McBride led the team in scoring in Minnesota’s recent win over the Storm, Napheesa Collier leads the team in multiple categories, including scoring, rebounding, and steals. Given that fact, Collier is the key player to watch for the road team. She currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 21.5 points. 

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Collier is averaging 21.4 points per contest.
• The Lynx forward has played against Western Conference teams eight times this season. In those contests, she has averaged 21.1 points per game. 
• In five road games this season, she is averaging 23.2 points per contest.
• Collier has suited up against the Aces once this season. She scored 18 points in that game.
• Over her last five outings, Collier is averaging 20.4 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per outing, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Napheesa Collier OVER 21.5 points

On the other side of this matchup, A’ja Wilson leads the WNBA in both scoring and rebounding. From a team perspective, she leads Las Vegas in scoring, rebounding, and steals. For obvious reasons, she is the key player to watch for the Aces. She currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points. 

Do Wilson’s numbers favorably compare to the points total for this contest? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• On the season, Wilson is averaging 28.3 points per contest.
• Wilson has played against Western Conference opponents seven times this season. She has averaged 28.3 PPG.
• In five home games, the two-time WNBA champion is averaging 26.2 points per outing. 
• Wilson has played against the Lynx one time this season. She scored 29 points in that matchup. 
• Across her last five outings, Wilson is averaging 30.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup in all five of those outings. 

Prediction: A’ja Wilson OVER 27.5 points

James Tillman’s Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Picks

• The Spread: Minnesota Lynx (+6.5) OddShark
• Over/Under: UNDER 165 points (BleacherNation.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Napheesa Collier OVER 21.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: A’ja Wilson OVER 27.5 points