MIAMI HEAT VS. SACRAMENTO KINGS ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR FEBRUARY 26, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Miami Heat (31-25 SU, 27-28-1 ATS) taking on the Sacramento Kings (33-23 SU, 29-27 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Monday, February 26, 2024
  
• Time: 10:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Golden 1 Center
  
• Location: Sacramento, California
  
• TV: NBA TV, NBCS-CA, and BSSUN

Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings Odds (Via DraftKings)

Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Heat Extend Their Winning Streak To Four Games?

Miami Heat Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 110.5 PPG – 27TH              
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.8 points per 100 possessions – 22ND                  
• Scoring Defense: 110.1 PPG – 4TH                 
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.4 points per 100 possessions – 8TH        

As was the case last season, the Miami Heat are slotted as one of the four play-in teams in the Eastern Conference. The good news is the team has posted seven wins across its last 10 outings.

Not only that, but the Heat come into this matchup riding a three-game winning streak. This includes victories over the Milwaukee Bucks (123-97), Philadelphia 76ers (109-104), and a 106-95 win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. 

Bam Adebayo spearheaded the Heat’s scoring attack with 24 points and seven rebounds. He also had three blocked shots on the defensive end of the court. 

Jimmy Butler scored 23 points, grabbed nine rebounds, and handed out six assists. Tyler Herro contributed 15 points, six boards, and three dimes.

The two teams battled to a 58-58 stalemate at halftime. However, Miami turned up the intensity on defense, limiting New Orleans to just 37 points in the second half.

“Our team is so ready for anything that anybody’s thrown at us,” Butler said after the game, via ESPN. “We’re so together, playing some incredible basketball. I don’t think it matters who we go up against right now. It’s that time of the year.”

Miami also limited the home team to 37.5 percent shooting from the floor and 21.9 percent from beyond the arc. The Heat will have a great chance of beating Sacramento if they can duplicate the defensive intensity they played with against New Orleans. 

Can The Kings Cool Off The Heat?

Sacramento Kings Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.6 PPG – 7TH      
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.6 points per 100 possessions – 13TH             
• Scoring Defense: 117.8 PPG – 22ND              
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.8 points per 100 possessions – 19TH       

Meanwhile, the Kings have climbed up to the fifth spot in the conference playoff race. They have produced six wins across their last 10 decisions. And like the Heat, the Kings also enter this matchup amid a three-game winning streak. 

Their streak includes wins over the Denver Nuggets (102-98), San Antonio Spurs (127-122), and most recently, an impressive 123-107 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday night. 

De’Aaron Fox went off for 33 points to go along with seven assists, and six rebounds.

Harrison Barnes added 22 points on 8-for-12 shooting from the field and 4-for-7 from 3-point range. Domantas Sabonis – who had averaged 13 points and 7.5 rebounds against the Clippers this season – finished with a triple-double that included 17 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 assists. 

The Kings were 0-2 against their division rivals coming into this contest. Additionally, they handed the Clippers consecutive losses for the first time since December. 

Now that we have set the table for this East vs. West matchup, let us look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Kings opened as a consensus 2.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has climbed up to seven points for the home team. Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Heat are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six outings.
• Miami is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 matchups against the Kings. 
• The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against Sacramento.
• In its last five February contests, Miami is 5-0 against the spread.
• The Kings are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Monday games.

Given the above trends, going with the home team to cover is the best play here.

Prediction: Sacramento Kings (-7)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 228.5 points. The line has recently moved to 224.5 points. Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER seven times in the Kings’ last 10 contests.
  The OVER total is 12-6 in Sacramento’s last 18 matchups against Miami.
• In the Kings’ last five home games, the OVER total hit four times.
• The OVER total has prevailed four times in Sacramento’s last five outings against Eastern Conference teams.
• Offensively, the two teams average a combined 229.1 points per contest. That is nearly three points higher than the projected points total for this matchup.
• From a defensive standpoint, Miami and Sacramento allow 227.9 points per game, which is 1.4 points higher than this matchup’s over/under total. 

Prediction: OVER 224.5 points

Player Prop Bets

My key player to watch for the road team is Bam Adebayo. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 21.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup. 

• Adebayo played against the Sacramento Kings 12 times during his career.  In those contests, he has averaged 14.9 points per contest. 
• During the season, Adebayo is averaging 20.3 points per outing. 
• In 23 road contests this season, he is averaging 21.1 PPG.
• Adebayo has played against Western Conference teams 18 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 20.6 points per outing.
• In eight matchups against Pacific Division opponents, Adebayo averages 17.6 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Adebayo is averaging 17.7 points per game, while exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Given the above trends, going with the “under” for Adebayo is the smart choice here.

Prediction: Bam Adebayo UNDER 21.5 points

Fresh off a 33-point outburst against Los Angeles, the key player to watch for the home team is De’Aaron Fox. He currently has -135 odds of scoring more than 23.5 points and +105 odds of finishing with less than 23.5 points. 

Let us look closer to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• In 11 career games against the Miami Heat, Fox is averaging 17.4 points per game. 
• On the season, Fox is averaging 26.8 points per outing.
• In 22 home contests, he is averaging 26 points per game.
• Fox has played against Eastern Conference teams 19 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 24.2 points per outing.
• In seven matchups against Southeast Division opponents, Fox is averaging 21.4 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Fox has averaged 25.8 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup six times during that stretch.

Prediction: De’Aaron Fox OVER 23.5 points

James Tillman’s Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings Picks

• The Spread: Sacramento Kings (-7)
• Over/Under: OVER 224.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Bam Adebayo UNDER 21.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: De’Aaron Fox OVER 23.5 points