MIAMI HEAT VS. MILWAUKEE BUCKS ODDS AND PREDICTIONS FOR FEBRUARY 13, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Miami Heat (28-25 SU, 24-28-1 ATS) taking on the Milwaukee Bucks (35-19 SU, 21-33 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Tuesday, February 13, 2024
  
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Fiserv Forum
  
• Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  
• TV: BSWI and BSSUN

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds (Via DraftKings)

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Heat Get Back On Track Before The All-Star Break?

Miami Heat Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 110.4 PPG – 27TH            
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.7 points per 100 possessions – 22ND                
• Scoring Defense: 110.8 PPG – 5TH              
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.1 points per 100 possessions – 10TH      

The Miami Heat are currently in the eighth spot in the conference playoff race. They have won just four times over their last 10 outings. The team’s recent two-game winning streak came to a halt thanks to a 110-106 loss to the Boston Celtics on Sunday. 

Tyler Herro scored a team-high 24 points along with six assists and four rebounds. 

Bam Adebayo finished with 22 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, and two steals. Despite being short-handed, Miami overcame a 15-point deficit before Boston pulled away with a four-point victory.

“I thought our group showed a tremendous amount of grit in that second half,” Spoelstra said, via CBS  Sports. “There were a lot of things that weren’t necessarily going our way, including the injuries. To really fight and claw back and get this game on the ropes, it’s a credit to how hard guys were playing.”

In addition to losing nine of their last 13 games, the Heat will be missing multiple players in this matchup. Jimmy Butler (personal), Josh Richardson (right shoulder), Terry Rozier (knee). Duncan Robinson is listed as “questionable” for this contest. 

With that in mind, the home team could be on its way to a huge home win in this one. 

Have The Bucks Finally Found Their Defensive Groove?

Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 122.7 PPG – 2ND       
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.3 points per 100 possessions – 4TH             
• Scoring Defense: 118.9 PPG – 23RD             
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.6 points per 100 possessions – 17TH       

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks have also produced just four wins in their last 10 decisions, and they currently have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference.

Milwaukee comes into this matchup riding a two-game winning streak that includes a pair of wins against the Charlotte Hornets (120-84) on Friday and the Denver Nuggets (112-95) on Monday night.

Giannis Antetokounmpo stuffed the stat sheet as he led the Bucks with 36 points, 18 rebounds, five assists, three assists, and two blocked shots.

Damian Lillard — the only other Bucks starter to score in double figures – finished with 18 points, five assists, and three rebounds. The Bucks have had their struggles at the defensive end of the court this season. 

In their last two outings, though, the narrative has been vastly different. The Bucks limited the defending champions to just 38.3 percent shooting from the field and 27.5 percent from beyond the arc. 

“Our entire staff, they’re doing a great job of just calling everything out,” Damian Lillard said after the game. “They’re challenging us in a lot of different ways — our communication, how physical we are, how we carry ourselves as a group. We’re trying to find our identity. Who do we want to be?”

Additionally, this marks the first time Milwaukee has held its opponents to under 100 points in back-to-back games since Nov 22-24, 2021. This does not bode well for the injury-riddled Heat.

Now that we have set the table for this Eastern Conference showdown, let us look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Milwaukee Bucks opened as a consensus 7.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has climbed to eight points for the home team (per pre-game.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
• Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six matchups against Eastern Conference opponents. 
• In their last five February contests, the Heat are 4-1 against the spread.
• The Bucks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games.
• Milwaukee is 5-2 ATS in its last seven matchups against teams in the Southeast Division.
• The last eight times the Bucks have played on a Tuesday, they are 12-6 against the spread. 

Given the fact that Miami will be missing multiple key players in this conference tilt, going with the home team to cover is the best play here.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks (-8)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 228 points. The line has recently dipped to 224.5 points. Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone UNDER six times in the Heat’s last seven games.
• The UNDER total cashed in nine times in Miami’s last 10 road contests.
• The total has gone UNDER seven times in the Bucks’ last eight outings.
• In Milwaukee’s last five February contests, the total has gone UNDER four times.

Prediction: UNDER 224.5 points

Player Prop Bets

One of the key players to watch for the road team is Tyler Herro. He currently has -140 odds of scoring more than 23.5 points and +110 odds of finishing with less than 23.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup. 

• During the season, Herro is averaging 21 points per outing. 
• In 15 road contests this season, he is averaging 20.1 PPG.
• Herro has played against Eastern Conference teams 18 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 22.6 points per outing.
• In a pair of matchups against Central Division opponents, Herro averages 25.5 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Herro is averaging 17.5 points per game, while exceeding the points total for this matchup two times during that stretch.

Given the above trends, going with the “under” for Herro is the best choice here.

Prediction: Tyler Herro UNDER 23.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Giannis Antetokounmpo. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points. 

Let us look closer to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.3 points per outing.
• In 28 home contests, he is averaging 29 PPG.

• Antetokounmpo has played against Eastern Conference teams 35 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 30.4 points per outing.
• In 10 matchups against Southeast Division opponents, Antetokounmpo is averaging 30 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Antetokounmpo has averaged 29.1 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 29.5 points

James’s Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Picks

• The Spread: Milwaukee Bucks (-8)
• Over/Under: UNDER 224.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Tyler Herro UNDER 23.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 29.5 points