MIAMI HEAT VS. LOS ANGELES LAKERS – ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 3, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from Wednesday night’s slate features the Miami Heat (19-14 SU, 15-18 ATS) taking on the Los Angeles Lakers (18-17 SU, 16-19 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Wednesday, January 3, 2024 at 10:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
  
• TV: ESPN

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Odds (via DraftKings)

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Short-Handed Heat Bounce Back Against A Slumping Lakers Squad?

Miami Heat Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 113.0 PPG – 22ND   
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.9 points per 100 possessions – 16TH    
• Scoring Defense: 112.0 PPG – 9TH   
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.8 points per 100 possessions – 13TH    

The Miami Heat have won six times across their last 10 outings. However, they have posted losses in each of their last two contests. This includes a 121-104 loss to the LA Clippers on Monday night. In that contest, Bam Adebayo led the way with a solid outing that included 21 points, 15 rebounds, and four assists. Kevin Love added 17 points, four rebounds, and three assists off the bench. 

Unfortunately, it was not enough for a short-handed Miami squad that was without Jimmy Butler (foot), Caleb Martin (ankle), Josh Richardson (back), and Haywood Highsmith (concussion protocol). And after putting up 58 points in the first half, Miami was outscored 62-46 in the second half, which included just 19 points in the fourth quarter. 

The Clippers finished the contest shooting 58.8 percent from the field and an efficient 48.3 percent from beyond the arc – something that head coach Erik Spoelstra emphasized after the game. 

“Defensively, we can be better,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said, via CBS Sports. “That’s not taking away from anything that the Clippers did. We struggled again in one-on-one situations, whether it was in the man or in zone, when they just kind of isolated in the zone. Repeated attacks off the dribble.”

The Heat will be short-handed once again when they face the Lakers on Wednesday, as both Butler and Highsmith are expected to sit this one out as well.

Can The Lakers Take Advantage Of A Favorable Schedule?

Los Angeles Lakers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 114.2 PPG – 17TH   
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.0 points per 100 possessions – 23RD     
• Scoring Defense: 114.7 PPG – 16TH    
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.4 points per 100 possessions –10TH   

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers have been struggling, and that is putting it nicely. They have dropped seven of their last 10 decisions and enter this matchup amid a two-game losing skid. This includes a 129-109 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday night. 

LeBron James paced the Lakers’ scoring attack with 34 points, eight assists, and five rebounds. Anthony Davis chipped with a solid effort at both ends of the floor. He finished with 20 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocked shots. 

But like the Heat, the Lakers saw their opponent shoot the ball at an efficient clip as well. New Orleans shot 51.7 percent overall and they converted 17 of their 34 attempts from 3-point range. 

The good news for the Lakers is that 10 of their next 11 games are at home. They are hoping to capitalize on this favorable stretch, considering they are 11-4 at home this season. 

Now, let us look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Los Angeles Lakers opened as a consensus 6.5-point favorite in this matchup. The line has dipped to 5.5 points for the home team. Here is a quick glimpse at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Heat are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
• Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last six matchups against the Lakers.
• The Heat are 7-13 ATS in their last 20 games against Western Conference opponents.
• Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last seven January games.
• Like the Heat, the Lakers are also 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.
• Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in its last seven January contests.
• The Lakers are just 1-5 ATS the last six times they have played on a Wednesday.

Based on the above trends, and the fact that Miami will be severely short-handed again, taking the home team to cover the spread is a wise choice.

Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 226.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has not moved, with the “under” garnering both 100 percent of the cash and 100 percent of the tickets (via pre-game.com). Here is a look at why going with the “UNDER” is the smart choice here. 

• The UNDER total has prevailed four times in Miami’s last five games.

• The total has gone UNDER six times in the Heat’s last eight road contests.

• The total has gone UNDER 12 times in the Lakers’ last 18 games against Miami.

• The UNDER total has hit for Los Angeles nine times in its last 11 home games.

• In the Lakers’ last 16 home games against the Heat, the UNDER total has prevailed 12 times.

Prediction: UNDER 226.5 points

Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Bam Adebayo. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and -125 odds of scoring less than 22.5 points (via PointsBet). 

• On the season, he is averaging 22 points per outing.
• In 13 road games, Adebayo is averaging 23.0 PPG.
• Adebayo has played against Western Conference teams eight times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 22.9 points per outing.
• Adebayo has played in four Wednesday night games this season. In those outings, he is averaging 22.8 PPG.
• Over his last 10 contests, Adebayo is averaging 20.9 PPG.

As the trends seem to indicate, going with the “over” for Adebayo looks like the better choice here.

Prediction: Bam Adebayo OVER 22.5 points

The key player to watch for the Lakers is Anthony Davis. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points (via DraftKings). 

Based on his production, this number seems a bit high. Nonetheless, here is a look at how his season splits stack up against his projected scoring total for this matchup. 

• On the season, he is averaging 25 points per outing.
• In 15 home games, Davis is averaging 24.8 PPG.
• Davis has played against Eastern Conference teams 10 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 25.7 PPG.
• The last six times he has played on a Wednesday, his points-per-game average is 21.7.
• During December – a sample size of 13 games — Davis averaged 28.5 PPG.

Based on the above trends, going with “under” for Davis looks like a safe bet here.

Prediction: Anthony Davis UNDER 29.5 points

James’s  Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Picks

• The Spread: Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5)
• Over/Under: OVER 226.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Bam Adebayo UNDER 22.5 points
• Player Prop Bet#2: Anthony Davis UNDER 29.5 points