DENVER NUGGETS VS. MILWAUKEE BUCKS ODDS AND PREDICTIONS FOR FEBRUARY 12, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Denver Nuggets (36-17 SU, 22-29-2 ATS) taking on the Milwaukee Bucks (34-19 SU, 20-33 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

 

Tipoff

• When: Monday, February 12, 2024
  
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Fiserv Forum
  
• Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  
• TV: BSWI and ALT

Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds (Via DraftKings)

Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Nuggets Slow Down The Bucks’ Offense?

Denver Nuggets Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 114.6 PPG – 18TH            
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.6 points per 100 possessions – 10TH               
• Scoring Defense: 111.0 PPG – 6TH            
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.9 points per 100 possessions – 13TH      

The Denver Nuggets find themselves tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the third-best record in the Western Conference, and they have produced seven wins across their last 10 outings.

Unfortunately, the team saw its three-game winning streak come to an end courtesy of a 135-106 loss to the Sacramento Kings on Friday night. Nikola Jokic scored a team-high 23 points to go along with eight rebounds, and seven assists.

Aaron Gordon finished with 14 points, three rebounds, and two assists. Jamal Murray contributed 12 points and three assists. Denver had a difficult time containing the Kings as they shot 58.6 percent from the field and 50 percent from beyond the arc. 

“We didn’t ake away anything, but you’re not going to beat a good team on the road with what we have,” Malone said, via ESPN. “When they convert at that kind of rate, you’re not giving yourself a chance to win.”

Denver’s sixth-rank defense will have its hands full once again as the Milwaukee Bucks have the second-highest scoring average while ranking fourth in efficiency. 

Can The Bucks Produce Another Solid Defensive Effort?

Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 122.9 PPG – 2ND     
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.4 points per 100 possessions – 4TH             
• Scoring Defense: 119.3 PPG – 23RD            
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.9 points per 100 possessions – 18TH       

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks occupy the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference, and they are just 4-6 in their last 10 decisions. Fortunately, Milwaukee was able to snap its recent three-game losing skid with a 120-84 win against the Charlotte Hornets on Friday night.

Damian Lillard set the tone for the team’s offense, scoring 26 points along with eight assists and four rebounds. Malik Beasley finished with 21 points on 7-for-9 shooting from 3-point range. Giannis Antetokounmpo added 15 points (on just 10 shot attempts) and 14 rebounds. 

The Bucks have struggled from a defensive standpoint this season. However, they limited the Hornets to 34.2 percent shooting from the field and 24.1 percent from long range. 

“I thought we set a tone defensively,” Rivers said after the game. “We were flying around tonight. Our energy was high. I didn’t see our guards get picked tonight. We’ve just got to keep working on it.”

With that in mind, the Bucks look to continue that trend against the defending champions.   

Now that we have set the table for this East vs. West matchup, let us look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Nuggets come into this matchup as a one-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has not changed (per pre-game.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Denver Nuggets 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Bucks.
• Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road matchups against Milwaukee. 
• The Bucks are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
• Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 matchups against Western Conference teams.

Given the above trends, going with the road team to cover a small spread is the best play here.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets (-1)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 233.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 232.5 points. Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone UNDER nine times in the Nuggets’ last 11 outings.
• The UNDER total cashed in four times in Denver’s last five road games.
• In the Nuggets’ last six contests, the UNDER total hit ALL six times.
• The total has gone UNDER six times in the Bucks’ last seven games.
• In Milwaukee’s last six matchups against Denver, the UNDER total prevailed four times.
• The UNDER total is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last five February games. 

Prediction: UNDER 232.5 points

Player Prop Bets

One of the key players to watch for the road team is Jamal Murray. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 22.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Murray is averaging 20.9 points per outing. 
• In 18 road contests this season, he is averaging 21.6 PPG.
• Murray has played against Eastern Conference teams 17 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 23.2 points per outing.
• In five matchups against Central Division opponents, Murray averages 26 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Murray is averaging 20.8 points per game, while exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Going with the “under” for Murray is the smart choice based on the above trends.

Prediction: Jamal Murray UNDER 22.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Damian Lillard. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 25.5 points. 

Let us look closer to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Lillard is averaging 25 points per outing.
• In 26 home contests, he is averaging 26 PPG.
• Lillard has played against Western Conference teams 13 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 26.7 points per outing.
• In four matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Lillard averages 21.5 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Lillard has averaged 24.9 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Damian Lillard OVER 25.5 points

James’s Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Picks

• The Spread: Denver Nuggets (-1)
• Over/Under: UNDER 232.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Jamal Murray UNDER 22.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Damian Lillard OVER 25.5 points