DENVER NUGGETS VS. BOSTON CELTICS – ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 19, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from Friday’s slate features the Denver Nuggets (28-14 SU, 18-23 ATS) taking on the Boston Celtics (32-9 SU, 21-18-2 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Friday, January 19, 2024
  
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
  
• Where: TD Garden
  
• Location: Boston, MA
  
• TV: ESPN

Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Odds (Via DraftKings)

Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Odds – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Nuggets Hand The Cs Their First Home Loss?

Denver Nuggets Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 116.3 PPG – 13TH     
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.4 points per 100 possessions – 7TH       
• Scoring Defense: 111.4 PPG – 7TH       
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.3 points per 100 possessions – 13TH  

The Nuggets have the third-best record in the Western Conference. They are 6-4 in their last 10 outings, including a 126-121 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday night. 

Nikola Jokic scored a team-high 25 points to go along with 19 rebounds and three assists. Jamal Murray added 17 points and 10 assists, while Aaron Gordon contributed 16 points, six rebounds, and four assists. 

In a battle between the two players who have won the MVP award over the last three seasons, Joel Embiid offered this assessment:

“It’s funny, because Twitter, we have a war going on between Philly fans and Denver fans,” Embiid said after the game. “It’s funny because both of us are just like, who cares? We want to play basketball and win some games. But he deserves (the praise). Until you knock him down, that is the best in the league. He is the finals MVP. Until you take that away, he can claim that.

Embiid finished with 41 points and 10 rebounds, as both players showed why they have dominated the MVP conversation the past few seasons. 

Although the Sixers are a formidable foe, it does not get any easier for the defending champions as they will take on the Boston Celtics. Boston has the league’s best record, and it is a perfect 20-0 at TD Garden this season. 

Can Boston Remain Perfect At Home Against The Defending Champs?

Boston Celtics Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.9 PPG – 5TH   
• Offensive Efficiency: 121.3 points per 100 possessions – 2ND        
• Scoring Defense: 110.9 PPG – 5TH 
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.3 points per 100 possessions – 2ND    

On the other side of this matchup, The Celtics have produced seven wins across their last 10 decisions, and they have won each of their last three games. This includes a 117-98 win over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night. 

Jayson Tatum paced the Celtics with 24 points (on 9-for-21 shooting) along with five rebounds and two assists. Jrue Holiday added 22 points, four rebounds, and four assists. Jaylen Brown contributed 21 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. 

Spurs rookie, Victor Wembanyama was impressed with Boston’s performance against his Spurs.

“Everybody can hoop on that team. Everyone’s a threat on the court,” the Spurs rookie said after scoring 27 against Boston. “But at the same time, they all know their roles. And they are all willing to share the ball, from the most important franchise guys to the role players. Everybody is ready to compete and to make the sacrifices.”

The Celtics limited the Spurs to 41.9 percent shooting from the field and 7-for-34 (20.6 percent) from beyond the arc. Boston will need a similar effort to remain perfect at home. 

Now that we have set the table for this East vs. West matchup, let us closely examine the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Celtics opened as a 5.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to six points for the home team. 

Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
• Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games against the Celtics.
• The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. 
• The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• Boston is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 January games.

Based on these trends, going with the home team to cover the spread looks like the best option.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-6)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 234 points. At this time of this writing, the line has moved slightly to 234.5 points (via pre-game.com). Here is why going with the “OVER” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Nuggets’ last seven games.

• The OVER total has hit four times In Denver’s last six games they played on a Friday.

• The OVER total has cashed in six times in the Celtics’ last seven matchups against Northwest Division opponents.

• In Boston’s last five Friday games, the OVER total prevailed four times. 

Prediction: OVER 234.5 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Nikola Jokic. He currently has -140 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and +110 odds of finishing with less than 25.5 points (Via DraftKings). Here is a closer look at how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Jokic is averaging 25.5 points per outing. 
• In 20 road games, he is averaging 25.3 PPG.
• Jokic has played against Eastern Conference teams 15 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging just 21.1 points per outing.
• During January, Jokic is averaging 23.0 PPG. 
• Jokic has played against teams in the Atlantic Division four times this season. In those games, he has averaged 28.3 PPG.
• Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 22.9 points per outing, exceeding the projected points total for this matchup five times during that stretch. 

Going with the “under” for Jokic is the smart play here based on the above trends.

Prediction: Nikola Jokic UNDER 25.5 points

The player to watch for the home team is Jayson Tatum. He currently has -135 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and +105 odds of scoring less than 27.5 points (Via DraftKings). Let us see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Tatum is averaging 27.1 points per outing. 

• In 19 home games, he is averaging 27.5 PPG.
• Tatum has played against Western Conference teams 11 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.5 points per outing.
• During January, Tatum is averaging 27.5 PPG. 
• Tatum has played against teams in the Northwest Division four times this season. In those games, he has averaged 34.3 PPG.
• Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 27.6 points per outing, exceeding the projected points total for this matchup five times during that stretch. 

Given the above trends, going with the “over” for Tatum is the smart play here.

Prediction: Jayson Tatum OVER 27.5 points

James’s Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Odds Picks

• The Spread: Boston Celtics (-6)
• Over/Under: Over 234.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Nikola Jokic Under 25.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 points