DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES & PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 22, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Dallas Mavericks (58-36 SU, 55-39 ATS) taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves (64-29 SU, 48-44-1 ATS). 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Tuesday, May 21, 2024
  
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
  
• Where: Target Center
  
• Location: Minneapolis, MN
  
• TV: TNT

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds (Via DraftKings) 

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

The Mavericks finished with the fifth-best regular-season record in the Western Conference. They eliminated the Los Angeles Clippers in the opening round of the playoffs in six games. When the top-seeded Thunder beat them by 22 points (117-95) in the opener of the semifinals, the Mavericks looked like they were going to have their hands full against a young but not battle-tested Thunder squad.

As they did in the first round, they split the first four games and posted back-to-back victories to close out each of those series in six games. In the series-clinching game against OKC, four of the starting five reached double figures. Luka Doncic scored a team-high 29 points, along with 10 rebounds and 10 assists.

Kyrie Irving added 22 points and three assists while knocking down four of his 10 attempts from beyond the arc. Derrick Jones Jr. also scored 22 on 8-for-13 shooting overall and a 4-for-6 effort from long range. 

Dallas trailed by as many as 17 points in the third quarter but stayed the course. That relentless effort enabled them to outscore the Thunder by a 69-42 margin in the second half. This marks the Mavericks’ second conference finals appearance in three years. Last time, they were defeated by the eventual champion Golden State Warriors in five games. This time, they are hoping to write a different narrative. 

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves finished with the third-best record in the conference. They made quick work of the Phoenix Suns in the opening round of the playoffs, defeating them in four games. Their next matchup was a second-round bout against the defending champions – a team that eliminated them in last year’s playoffs. 

In what proved to be an odd series, the road team won each of the first four games before the home teams won Games 6 and 7, setting up a winner-take-all Game 7 on Denver’s home floor. It didn’t look good for Minnesota as they were down by 15 points at the break and 20 in the third quarter. That’s when it happened. 

The team that finished with the top-scoring defense during the regular season showed up in the second half. Thanks to a 28-9 run, a 20-point deficit was trimmed to just one point entering the final frame. Leading 85-82, Naz Reid hit a pair of free throws and a dunk before assisting on an Edwards three-point shot, giving Minnesota a 92-82 lead with just three minutes left to play. 

The Timberwolves went on to win the game 98-90, punching their ticket to the conference finals round for the first time in 20 years. Karl-Anthony Towns led the team’s scoring attack with 23 points and 10 rebounds. 

Jaden McDaniels added 23 points and six rebounds. Anthony Edwards contributed 16 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists on 6-for-24 shooting overall and just 2-for-10 from distance. 

Minnesota comes into this series with some confidence after beating the champions on their home floor three times in that series. They also held Denver under 100 points in each of their four wins. 

So even though Dallas was in this situation just two years ago, if Minnesota can play defense at the same level as it did during the regular season, it will be on its way to the team’s first-ever NBA Finals appearance. 

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 1 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

After posting consecutive wins that eliminated the Denver Nuggets from the postseason, the Timberwolves come into this matchup as a four-point favorite (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Dallas Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
• The Minnesota Timberwolves are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 outings.
• In its last 10 games against teams in the Western Conference, Minnesota is 7-3 against the spread.

The Timberwolves have been favored to win by four points or more 47 times this season. Their against-the-spread record is 22-25 in those contests. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 7-8 against the spread when playing as an underdog of four points or more.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves (-4)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 208 points. The line has moved to 207.5 points at the time of this writing (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone UNDER 10 times in the Mavericks’ last 15 games.
• In Dallas’s last 10 matchups against teams in the Northwest Division, the UNDER total cashed in eight times.
• The UNDER total is 4-2 in the Mavericks’ last six May games.
• The total has gone UNDER seven times in the Timberwolves’ last nine games against Dallas.
• In Minnesota’s last six contests against Southwest Division opponents, the UNDER total prevailed four times
• wThe UNDER total is 8-4 in the Timberwolves’ last 12 May games.

Prediction: UNDER 207.5 points

Player Prop Bets

Luka Doncic leads the Mavericks in scoring, rebounding, and assists, thus making him the key player to watch for the road team. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 28.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 28.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• Doncic is averaging 32.9 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In two matchups against Minnesota this season, he has averaged 36.5 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 27.3 points per outing.
• Doncic has played against Western Conference teams 54 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 31.9 points per outing.
• In 20 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, the Mavericks guard is averaging 31.7 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Doncic has averaged 26.2 points and 9.7 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Luka Doncic OVER 28.5 points

On the other side of this matchup, Anthony Edwards is key player to watch for the home team. He currently has +100 odds of scoring more than 28.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 28.5 points. 

Do Edwards’ numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• Edwards is averaging 26.3 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In four games against the Mavericks this season, he has averaged 24.5 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Edwards is averaging 28.9 points per outing.
• Edwards has played against Western Conference teams 61 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 26.0 points per outing.
• In 22 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, the Timberwolves guard is averaging 26.4 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Edwards has averaged 28.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Anthony Edwards OVER 28.5 points

James Tillman’s Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 1 Picks

• The Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves (-4) Bleacher Nation
• Over/Under: OVER 207.5 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Luka Doncic OVER 28.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Anthony Edwards OVER 28.5 points