DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES – ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR DECEMBER 28, 2023

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on the tap from Thursday night’s slate features the Dallas Mavericks (18-13 SU, 16-15 ATS) taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves (22-7 SU, 15-13-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Thursday, December 28, 2023 at 8:00 PM ET
Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV: BSNX and BSSW

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds (via DraftKings)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Dallas Mavericks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 113.4 PPG – 19TH  
• Offensive Efficiency: 116.4 PPOHP – 15TH  
• Scoring Defense: 111.9 PPG – 8TH   
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.8 PPOHP – 13TH   

*PPOHP (Points Per One Hundred Possessions)

The Dallas Mavericks come into this matchup with a 5-5 record in their last 10 contests. This includes a 113-110 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night.  Luka Doncic paced the Mavericks’ scoring attack with a team-high 39 points to go along with seven rebounds and six assists. Seth Curry added 19 points and four assists off the bench.

The Mavericks led by as many as 20 points in the first half and had an eight-point cushion going into the final frame. However, the Cavaliers outscored the Mavericks 31-20 en route to an unexpected victory for a team missing several key players. 

Minnesota Timberwolves Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.1 PPG – 9TH   
• Offensive Efficiency: 116.8 PPOHP – 12TH    
• Scoring Defense: 115.9 PPG – 19TH    
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.6 PPHOP –15TH   

*PPOHP (Points Per One Hundred Possessions)

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves enter this matchup having won seven of their last 10 games. This includes a 129-106 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night. Anthony Edwards scored a team-high 25 points. He also had seven rebounds and six assists. Mike Conley added 17 points and four assists, while Karl Anthony-Towns contributed 16 points and six rebounds. 

Now, let us look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Minnesota Timberwolves opened as a consensus 9.5-point favorite in this matchup. The line has moved up slightly to 10 points for the home team. Here is a quick glimpse at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Mavericks are 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.
• Dallas is just 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against Minnesota.
• The Mavericks are 4-2 ATS in their last six road contests.
• The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against the Timberwolves.
• The Timberwolves are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games they played on a Thursday.

Based on the above trends, taking the home team to cover is a wise choice.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves (-10)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 227 points. The line has moved to 228.5 points. Here is a look at why going with the “OVER” is the smart choice here. 

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Mavericks’ last seven matchups against Northwest Division opponents.
• The OVER total has hit four times for Minnesota in its last five outings.
• In the Timberwolves’ last 12 matchups against Southwest Division opponents, the OVER total won out eight times.
• The OVER total has cashed in 11 times in Minnesota’s last 17 December games.

Prediction: OVER 228.5 points

Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Luka Doncic. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 36.5 points and -110 odds of scoring less than 36.5 points (via PointsBet). Let us look at how his season splits compare with the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 14 career games against the Timberwolves, Doncic is averaging 24.1 points per contest. 
• On the season, he is averaging 33.7 points per outing.
• Doncic has played against Western Conference teams 21 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 34.7 points per outing.
• In 15 road games, Doncic is averaging 32.9 PPG.
• Doncic has played against Northwest Division teams seven times this season. He is averaging 37 PPG in those contests.
• Doncic has played against the Western Conference 21 times this season. In those contests, his points-per-game average is 34.7 PPG.
• During December – a sample size of 12 games – Doncic is averaging 37.4 PPG.
• Doncic has exceeded the points total for this matchup six times in his last 10 games.

Given his recent body of work, going with the “over” for Doncic looks like the better choice here.

Prediction: Luka Doncic OVER 36.5 points

At the time of this writing, the only Timberwolves player with any prop bet information available is Karl Anthony-Towns. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -105 odds of scoring less than 21.5 points. Let us look and see if KAT’s numbers compare favorably against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 22 career games against the Mavericks, Anthony-Towns is averaging 23 points per contest. 
• On the season, he is averaging 22 points per outing.
• In 13 home games, Anthony-Towns is averaging 21.4 PPG.
• Anthony-Towns has played against Western Conference teams 18 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 22.7 PPG.
• The last three times he has played on a Thursday, his points-per-game average is 24.7.
• During December – a sample size of 10 games — Anthony-Towns is averaging 22.2 PPG.
• Anthony-Towns has exceeded the projected points total for this matchup five times across his last 10 outings.

Based on the above trends, going with the “over” for Towns is a safe bet.

Prediction: Karl Anthony-Towns OVER 21.5 points

James’s Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Picks

• The Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves (-10)
• Over/Under: OVER 228.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Luka Doncic OVER 36.5 points
• Player Prop Bet#2: Karl Anthony-Towns OVER 21.5 points