DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. BOSTON CELTICS GAME 1 ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 6, 2024 

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Latest Basketball News. We have arrived at the NBA Finals, where the Dallas Mavericks (62-37 SU, 59-40 ATS) will take on the Boston Celtics (76-20 SU, 48-43-5 ATS) in what should be a long series.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into the series opener and why.

Tipoff

• When: Thursday, June 6, 2024
  
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
  
• Where: TD Garden
  
• Location: Boston, MA
  
• TV: ABC

Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Odds (Via DraftKings)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

The Boston Celtics are just two years removed from their last Finals appearance. In 2022, they fell to the Golden State Warriors in six games. Last season, they were just one win away from consecutive appearances despite falling behind 0-3 to the Miami Heat in the conference finals. 

This season, Boston was one of the prohibitive favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference, and they certainly lived up to those lofty expectations. They finished the season with the league’s best record at 64-18. Despite dropping a pair of Game 2s in the first two rounds of the postseason, the Celtics have produced 12 wins in their 14 postseason games, including a 4-0 sweep over the Indiana Pacers in the previous round. 

Looking back at the team’s previous Finals appearance, Boston forward Jayson Tatum offered this perspective:

“It was a lesson to be learned,” Tatum said via CBS Sports. “I told myself that if I ever got the opportunity again to make it to the Finals, that (I’d) never take it for granted. Obviously, we’re here now and thankful to be here. I’m excited to get ready to play and have fun.

On the other side of the equation, the Dallas Mavericks have also had an impressive postseason run. In the first round of the playoffs, they defeated the L.A. Clippers in six games—the first time they had managed to get by the Clippers in three tries. Next up, their opponent was the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. The teams split the first four contests before Dallas closed out the series with victories in Games 5 and 6.

The conference finals matchup would pit the Mavericks against the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves – a team that had not been this far in the playoffs since 2004, and it showed. The Mavericks took the first three games of the series before Minnesota finally broke through with a win in Game 4. However, the Mavericks left little doubt that they were the better team, as they closed out the series with an emphatic 124-103 victory in Game 5. 

The Mavericks’ last trip to the Finals occurred in 2011. Ironically, head coach Jason Kidd was the starting point guard for that squad, which defeated the Miami Heat in six games to claim the franchise’s only NBA championship.

Kidd helped guide the Mavericks to an upset as a player. Can he pull off the feat once again from the sidelines?

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

Following their sweep over the Pacers in the last round, the Celtics come into this matchup as a 6.5-point favorite (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five outings.
• Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last six matchups against Boston.
• The Mavericks are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
• In their last seven matchups against Eastern Conference opponents, Dallas is 6-1 against the spread.
• The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
• Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against Southwest Division teams.
• In their last six Thursday night games, the Celtics are 2-4 against the spread.

The Celtics have been favored to win by 6.5 points or more 56 times this season. Their against-the-spread record in those contests is 30-23-3. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 2-5 against the spread when playing as an underdog of 6.5 points or more.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-6.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 217 points, but at the time of this writing, the line has moved to 215 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Mavericks’ last six contests.
• In Dallas’s last five games as the underdog, the OVER total is 4-1.
• The OVER total has prevailed five times in the Celtics’ last six games.
• In Boston’s last seven home games, the OVER total cashed in six times.
• Boston and Dallas average a combined 238.5 points per game, which is 23.5 more than the 215 over/under.
• The Celtics and Mavericks’ opponents average a combined 224.8 points per contest, which is 9.8 points higher than the point total for this matchup.

Prediction: OVER 215 points

Player Prop Bets

Luka Doncic leads the team in multiple categories, including scoring, rebounding, assists and steals. With that in mind, he is the key player to watch for the road team. Doncic currently has -112 odds of scoring more than 31.5 points and -108 odds of finishing with less than 31.5 points (via DraftKings—Note: Odds Subject To Change).

Do Doncic’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• Doncic is averaging 32.9 points per contest across 87 regular season and playoff games.
• In two games against the Mavericks this season, he has averaged 35.0 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Doncic is averaging 28.8 points per outing.
• Doncic has suited up against Eastern Conference teams 28 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 34.9 points per outing.
• In nine matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, the Mavericks guard is averaging 34.6 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Doncic has averaged 29.1 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.4 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Luka Doncic OVER 31.5 points

On the other side, Jayson Tatum is one of the key players to watch for the Cs. He currently has -122 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and +102 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• Tatum is averaging 26.7 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In two matchups against Dallas this season, he has averaged 35.5 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Tatum is averaging 26.0 points per outing.
• Tatum has played against Western Conference teams 28 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 26.6 points per outing.
• In 23 matchups against Southwest Division opponents, the Celtics forward is averaging 27.0 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Tatum has averaged 27.1 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jayson Tatum OVER 26.5 points

James Tillman’s Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Game 1 Picks

• The Spread: Boston Celtics (-6) Bleacher Nation
• Over/Under: OVER 215 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Luka Doncic OVER 31.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Jayson Tatum OVER 26.5 points