CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS – ODDS & PREDICTIONS

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on the tap from Wednesday night’s slate features the Cleveland Cavaliers (17-13 SU, 14-14-2 ATS) taking on the Dallas Mavericks (18-12 SU, 16-14 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 8:30 PM ET
  
• Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
  
• TV: BSSW, BSOH

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds (Via DraftKings)

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Cleveland Cavaliers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 112.0 PPG – 23RD
  
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.8 PPOHP – 18TH
  
• Scoring Defense: 111.9 PPG – 8TH 
  
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.6 PPOHP – 11TH   

*PPOHP = points per one hundred possessions

The Cleveland Cavaliers come into this matchup with a 6-4 record across their last 10 decisions. This includes a 109-95 win over the Chicago Bulls on Saturday night. Max Straus led the injury-riddled Cavaliers with 26 points and seven assists. Jarrett Allen had a solid game with 19 points, 17 boards, and seven dimes. Craig Porter added 19 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds. 

Dallas Mavericks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 119.3 PPG – 7TH
  
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.7 PPOHP – 7TH
  
• Scoring Defense: 117.8 PPG – 21ST  
  
• Defensive Efficiency: 117.1 PPHOP –7TH   

*PPOHP = points per one hundred possessions

The Dallas Mavericks have also produced six wins in their last 10 outings. This stretch coincides with a two-game winning streak. In the Mavericks’ last outing, they beat the Phoenix Suns 128-114 on Christmas Day. To say that Luka Doncic had a solid outing would be a huge understatement.

He scored 50 points en route to reaching the 10,000th point of his career. Doncic also tallied 15 assists, six rebounds, and four steals. He shot 15-for-25 from the floor, including an 8-for-16 effort from beyond the arc. Doncic also converted all 12 of his attempts from the charity stripe. Derrick Jones Jr. added 23 points and three rebounds, while Dereck Lively II contributed 20 points and 10 rebounds. 

Now, let us dive deeply into the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Dallas Mavericks opened as a consensus four-point favorite in this matchup. The line has moved slightly to 3.5 points for the home team. Here are a few trends that suggest why taking the road team to cover is the way to go. 

• The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. 
• Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last six road games against Dallas.
• The Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven December games.
• Cleveland is 7-6-1 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 6-8 ATS at home.

Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers (+3.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 231.5 points. The line has moved to 231 points, with the “over” garnering 92 percent of the cash and 86 percent of the tickets (per pre-game.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the over/under during the season. 

• The OVER total has prevailed four times in Cleveland’s last five games.
• In the Cavaliers’ last six outings against Western Conference teams, the total has gone OVER five times. 
• The UNDER total has hit five times in Cleveland’s last six road contests.
• In the Mavericks’ last five contests, the UNDER total has won out four times.
• The UNDER total has cashed in four times in Dallas’s last six matchups against the Cavaliers.
• In the Mavericks’ last 16 home games, the OVER has hit 11 times.
• Lastly, the OVER total has hit Dallas eight times in its last 10 matchups against Eastern Conference teams. 

Based on the above trends, going with the “under” total is the best bet. 

Prediction: OVER 231 points

Prop Bet

The Cavaliers’ top three scorers are out of the lineup due to injuries. With that in mind, we will look at just one key player in this matchup.

The key player we will focus on in this matchup is Luka Doncic. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 36.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 36.5 points. Here is a look at how Doncic’s numbers compare with the projected scoring total for this matchup.

• In eight career games against the Cavaliers, Doncic is averaging 27.9 points per contest. 
• On the season, he is averaging 33.5 points per outing.
• In 13 home games, Doncic is averaging 34.3 PPG.
• Doncic has played against Eastern Conference teams seven times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 30.1 PPG.
• The last seven times he has played on a Wednesday, his points-per-game average is 29.4.
• During December – a sample size of 11 games – Doncic is averaging 37.1 PPG.

As trends seem to indicate, going with the “under” for Doncic looks like the better choice here.

Prediction: Luka Doncic UNDER 36.5 points

James’s Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks

• The Spread: Cleveland Cavaliers (+3.5)
• Over/Under: OVER 231 points
• Player Prop Bet: Luka Doncic UNDER 36.5 points