BOSTON CELTICS VS. INDIANA PACERS GAME 4 ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 27, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Latest Basketball News. The only game on tap from tonight’s slate features the Boston Celtics (75-20 SU, 48-42-5 ATS) taking on the Indiana Pacers (55-44 SU, 53-43-3 ATS). 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Monday, May 27, 2024*
  
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
  
• Location: Indianapolis, IN
  
• TV: ESPN

Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers Odds (Via DraftKings)

Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers finished first and second, respectively, in scoring during the regular season. These two ball clubs also lead the playoff field in scoring as well. With that in mind, it seemed only fitting that these two teams would be the ones squaring off with an NBA Finals berth on the line.

Boston cruised into these finals with just two losses across their first 10 postseason contests. The same cannot be said about Indiana, though. They got by an injury-plagued Milwaukee Bucks team in the opening round. In the conference semifinals, they had to claw their way back from a 3-2 deficit before winning it all against a New York Knicks team that was missing several players. 

In Game 1, the Pacers nearly had the game wrapped up. But thanks to a few mental mistakes, the Celtics forced an overtime session en route to a 133-128 victory. The home team would not need any late-game heroics in Game 2. After not being recognized as an All-NBA caliber talent this season, Jaylen Brown went out and dropped 40 points, which tied a career playoff high. 

Even more importantly, the Celtics took a 2-0 series lead—the first time this has occurred during their postseason run.

If the Pacers had any hopes of getting on the board in this series, they would need to hold serve at home in Games 3 and 4. They had won 11 straight at Gainbridge Fieldhouse dating back to March, including a perfect 6-0 mark in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they were forced to play Game 3 without their All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton due to a hamstring injury. 

Pacers’ Haliburton will miss Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals because of a hamstring injury https://t.co/NRiPV0cnVa

— WPLG Local 10 Sports (@Local10Sports) May 25, 2024

The Pacers fought valiantly throughout the night. They enjoyed a 68-40 advantage in points in the paint and a 43-36 edge on the glass. Not only that, but they also led by as many as 18 points in the third quarter. Unfortunately, Boston outscored Indiana by a sizable 48-27 margin the rest of the way. This included a 13-2 run over the final 2:38 after T.J. McConnell had given the home team a 109-101 lead. 

The Celtics escaped with a 114-111 victory and are now one victory away from their second finals appearance in three years. Make no mistake. Boston is going to win the series. It is only a matter of whether it will be in four or five games.

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 4 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

The Celtics have produced six straight victories, including the first three games of this conference finals. Given that fact, it is not much of a surprise that the Celtics come into this matchup as an eight-point favorite (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
• Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups against Indiana.
• In their last five road contests against Indiana, the Celtics are 1-5 against the spread.
• The Pacers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five outings.
• Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last six home contests against Boston.
• In their last seven May games, the Pacers are 5-2 against the spread.

The Celtics have been favored to win by eight points or more 49 times this season. Their against-the-spread record is 25-21-3 in those contests. Meanwhile, the Pacers are an impressive 4-2 against the spread when playing as an underdog of eight points or more.

Much like Game 3, I expect another inspired effort by the home team. Especially since this group does not want its season to end on its home floor and by a sweep. With that in mind, look for Indiana to cover, but Boston wraps up the series in a close one. 

Prediction: Boston Pacers (+8)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 221.5 points. The line has moved to 222.5 points at the time of this writing (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER in each of the Celtics’ last five games.
• The OVER total is 5-1 in Boston’s last six matchups against Central Division opponents.
• In the Celtics’ last six May games, the OVER total cashed in five times.
• As was the case with the Celtics, the OVER total has prevailed in each of the Pacers’ last five contests.
• The OVER total is 5-1 in Indiana’s last six matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.
• In the Pacers’ last six contests against Atlantic Division teams, the OVER total prevailed five times.
• Indiana and Boston average a combined 243.9 points per contest, which is 21.4 more points than the over/under for this contest.
• Opponents of these teams average 229.4 points per game, which is 6.9 points higher than the 222.5 estimated total. 

Prediction: OVER 222.5 points

Player Prop Bets

Jayson Tatum, who led the Cs with 36 points in Game 3, is the key player to watch in this potential series-clinching game. He currently has +100 odds of scoring more than 30.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 30.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• Tatum is averaging 26.5 points per contest across 87 regular season and playoff games.
• In seven games against the Pacers this season, he has averaged 32.1 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Tatum is averaging 26.0 points per outing.
• Tatum has played against Eastern Conference teams 59 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 26.8 points per outing.
• In 23 matchups against Central Division opponents, the Celtics forward is averaging 27.1 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Tatum has averaged 26.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jayson Tatum OVER 30.5 points

On the other side of this matchup, Pascal Siakam is the Pacers’ top-scoring option (21.8 PPG), and he is the only player on the roster with championship experience. He currently has -122 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and +102 odds of finishing with less than 22.5 points. 

Do Siakam’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• Siakam is averaging 21.7 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In eight games against the Celtics this season, he has averaged 22.6 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 21.8 points per outing.
• Siakam has played against Eastern Conference teams 64 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 22.1 points per outing.
• In 30 matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, the Pacers forward is averaging 21.0 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Siakam has averaged 21.4 points and 6.5 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Pascal Siakam OVER 22.5 points

James Tillman’s Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers Game 4 Picks

• The Spread: Indiana Pacers (+8) Bleacher Nation
• Over/Under: OVER 222.5 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Jayson Tatum OVER 30.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Pascal Siakam OVER 22.5 points