OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. WASHINGTON WIZARDS – ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 8, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from Monday night’s slate features the Oklahoma City Thunder (23-11 SU, 23-10-1 ATS) taking on the Washington Wizards (6-29 SU, 16-19 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

 

Tipoff

• When: Monday, January 8, 2024 at 7:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Capital One Arena, Washington D.C.
  
• TV: MNMT and BSOK

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Washington Wizards Odds (Via DraftKings)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Washington Wizards – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Thunder Snap Their Two-Game Slide?

OKC Thunder Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 121.8 PPG – 4TH   
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.6 points per 100 possessions – 4TH      
• Scoring Defense: 114.2 PPG – 15TH      
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.1 points per 100 possessions – 9TH    

The Oklahoma City Thunder have the third-best record in the Western Conference, and they have won seven times in their last 10 outings. However, they enter this matchup amid a two-game losing skid. This includes a 124-115 loss to the Brooklyn Nets. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a team-high 34 points, along with nine rebounds, and six assists. Jalen Williams added 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists. 

“They were just the aggressor in the game on both ends of the floor I thought,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. “Really credit them, they’d struggled lately, and they did a great job of attacking the game and setting a tone for the game.”

The Thunder allowed the Nets to build a 32-point lead. While the Wizards are not an elite team, OKC cannot afford to get off to a slow start as was the case against Brooklyn. 

Can The Wizards Make This A Competitive Game?

Washington Wizards Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 115.1 PPG – 15TH   
• Offensive Efficiency: 111.4 points per 100 possessions – 25TH     
• Scoring Defense: 126.1 PPG – 30TH    
• Defensive Efficiency: 122.0 points per 100 possessions – 30TH    

Meanwhile, the Washington Wizards have struggled this season, to put it nicely. They have the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference. They dropped eight of their last 10 decisions. Furthermore, they come into this matchup with losses in each of their previous four games. 

This includes a 121-105 loss to the New York Knicks on Saturday night. Kyle Kuzma paced Washington with 27 points on 10-for-21 shooting from the floor. Deni Avdija contributed 23 points, along with 10 boards and six dimes. 

“We knew going in that they’re a very aggressive, a very physical team,” Washington coach Wes Unseld Jr. said after the game. “I don’t think we came out anticipating that amount of force.”

Like the Thunder, the Wizards allowed their opponent to get off to a hot start and they had to play catch-up the rest of the way. Washington can ill afford this kind of effort against a Thunder team looking to snap a two-game losing streak. 

Now, let us look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Thunder opened as a consensus 10-point favorite. The line has recently moved to 11.5 points for the road team. Here is a look at how both teams have performed against the spread this season.

• The Thunder are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
• OKC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven matchups against Washington.
• The Thunder are 2-4 ATS in their last six road contests.
• In their last five road games against the Wizards, OKC is 4-1 against the spread.
• The Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
• Washington is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Monday games.

Based on the above trends, going with the Thunder to cover feels like an excellent choice in this matchup.

Prediction: OKC Thunder (-11.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 241.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 246.5 points (via pre-game.com). Here is a look at how each team has performed against the over/under trend.

• The total has gone OVER seven times in the Thunder’s last nine games.

• The OVER total has prevailed five times in OKC’s last six matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.

• In the Thunder’s last seven games against Southeast Division teams, the OVER has prevailed six times.

• The total has gone UNDER for the Wizards six times in their last nine games.

• The UNDER total has prevailed four times in Washington’s last five games against Northwest Division teams.

• In the Wizards’ last six January contests, the UNDER total hit five times.

• The OVER total has won four times in Washington’s last five matchups against the Thunder.

• In the six regular season games between these teams, the combined score never exceeded the projected points total for this matchup. 

Prediction: UNDER 246.5 points

Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 33.5 points and +100 odds of scoring less than 33.5 points. 

• On the season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.5 points per outing.
• In 15 road games, he is averaging 32.1 PPG.
• Gilgeous-Alexander has played against Eastern Conference teams 12 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 33.7 points per outing.
• When playing on two days of rest this season (sample size of seven occurrences), Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 34.4 PPG.
• Gilgeous-Alexander has played in four Monday night games this season. In those outings, he is averaging 30.5 points per contest.
• Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 33.2 points per outing, and he has exceeded the projected points total six times during that stretch. 

Based on the trends, this one is tough to call. But because the Wizards are ranked near the bottom of the league in multiple defensive metrics, I am going with the “over” for SGA.

Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 33.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Kyle Kuzma. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 22.5 points. Here is a look at how his season splits stack up against his projected scoring total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Kuzma is averaging 22.6 points per outing.
• In 15 home games, he is averaging 22 PPG.
• Kuzma has played against Western Conference teams seven times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 21.9 PPG.
• He has played seven times on Monday nights this season. His points-per-game average in those contests is 26.4.
• Over his last 10 outings, Kuzma is averaging 21.3 PPG.

Kuzma’s numbers are comparable with the projected points total in this matchup. With that being said, going with the “over” feels like a safe bet. 

Prediction: Kyle Kuzma OVER 22.5 points

James’s Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Washington Wizards Picks

• The Spread: Thunder (-11.5)
  
• Over/Under: UNDER 246.5 points
  
• Player Prop Bet #1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 33.5 points
  
• Player Prop Bet#2: Kyle Kuzma OVER 22.5 points