OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. MIAMI HEAT – ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 9, 2024 

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from Wednesday night’s slate features the Oklahoma City Thunder (24-11 SU, 23-11-1 ATS) taking on the Miami Heat (21-15 SU, 17-19 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Monday, January 10, 2024 at 7:30 PM ET
  
• Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
  
• TV: BSSUN and BSOK

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat Odds (Via DraftKings)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Thunder Get Their First Road Win In Miami Since August 2020?

OKC Thunder Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 122.2 PPG – 4TH     
• Offensive Efficiency: 121.0 points per 100 possessions – 4TH       
• Scoring Defense: 114.6 PPG – 15TH        
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.5 points per 100 possessions – 9TH 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 7-3 across their last 10 outings, helping them to catapult to the second-best record in the Western Conference. Following a two-game skid, which saw the team lose to the Atlanta Hawks and Brooklyn Nets, OKC had a solid bounce-back game against Washington.

“I thought our intensity and how hard we played tonight was much, much better,” said Thunder coach Mark Daigneault. “And there were times in those other two games where we gave up a lot of unearned stuff. I did not think much tonight was unearned.”

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paced OKC with 32 points, six rebounds, five assists, and three steals. He also tallied one blocked shot as well. Chet Holmgren finished with a stat line of 31 points, five rebounds, and two blocks. 

The Thunder are hoping to get another win against a Heat team that has won two of its past three games. 

Can The Heat Continue Their Dominance Over OKC?

Miami Heat Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 112.7 PPG – 23RD 
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.5 points per 100 possessions – 17TH      
• Scoring Defense: 111.6 PPG – 9TH    
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.4 points per 100 possessions – 13TH     

On the other side of this matchup, the Heat have produced six wins across their last 10 outings. This includes a 120-113 win over the Houston Rockets on Monday night. Tyler Herro led Miami with 28 points on 10-for-20 shooting from the field and an efficient 5-for-10 effort from beyond the arc. Bam Adebayo added 22 points, 12 rebounds, and three assists. 

While the Thunder have been playing well, the Heat have dominated the series, winning six straight wins. It will be interesting to see if the short-handed Heat can continue the streak. 

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let us take a close look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Spread

The Thunder opened as a one-point underdog. However, that line has swung in the other direction as they are now a 4.5-point favorite. Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Thunder are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 outings.
• Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road contests.
• The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six road matchups against Miami.
• The Heat are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
• Miami is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six Wednesday night games. 
• OKC is 9-6-1 ATS on the road, while Miami is just 6-10 ATS as the home team. 

Based on the above trends, going with the Thunder to cover feels like a solid choice in this matchup.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 233 points. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 234.5 points (via pre-game.com). Here is why going with the “OVER” is the smart choice here. 

• The total has gone OVER eight times in the Thunder’s last 10 games.

• The OVER total has prevailed six times in Oklahoma City’s last seven matchups against Eastern Conference opponents. 

• The OVER has cashed in seven times in OKC’s last eight games against teams in the Southeast Division.

• In the Heat’s last six home games, the OVER total hit five times.

Prediction: OVER 234.5 points

Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Chet Holmgren. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 17.5 points and -110 odds of scoring less than 17.5 points. 

• On the season, Holmgren is averaging 17.8 points per outing, 
• In 16 road games, he is averaging 16.8 PPG.
• Holmgren has played against Eastern Conference teams 13 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 18.2 points per outing.
• During January, Holmgren is averaging 18.5 points per game. 
• Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 20 points per outing, exceeding the projected points total for this matchup eight times during that stretch. 

As the trends indicate, going with the “over” for Holmgren looks like the better choice here.

Prediction: Chet Holmgren OVER 17.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Tyler Herro. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 23.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 23.5 points. Here is a look at how his season splits stack up against his projected scoring total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Herro is averaging 22.7 points per outing.
• In eight home games, he is averaging 24.6 PPG.
• Herro has played against Western Conference teams 10 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 19.6 PPG.
• He has played five times on Wednesday nights this season. His points-per-game average in those contests is 20.2.
• In four January contests, he is averaging 17.5 points per outing. 
• In three matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Herro is averaging 24 points per outing.
• Over his last 10 outings, Herro is averaging 22.6 PPG.

Although Herro has exceeded the projected points total for this matchup six times over his last 10 outings, going with “under” for Herro looks like a safe bet based on these trends.

Prediction: Tyler Herro UNDER 23.5 points

James’s Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat Picks

• The Spread: Magic (+5)
• Over/Under: OVER 234.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Chet Holmgren OVER 17.5 points
• Player Prop Bet#2: Tyler Herro UNDER 23.5 points