MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS. DENVER NUGGETS ODDS AND PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 29, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Milwaukee Bucks (32-14 SU, 18-28 ATS) taking on the defending champion Denver Nuggets (32-15 SU, 19-26-2 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Monday, January 29, 2024
  
• Time: 9:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Ball Arena
  
• Location: Denver, Colorado
  
• TV: ALT and BSWI

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets Odds (Via DraftKings)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Bucks Hang With The Defending Champs?

Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 124.4 PPG – 2ND      
• Offensive Efficiency: 121.3 points per 100 possessions – 2ND         
• Scoring Defense: 120.1 PPG – 24TH         
• Defensive Efficiency: 117.1 points per 100 possessions – 19TH    

The Bucks have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference and have produced seven wins in their last 10 outings. This includes an emphatic 141-117 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday night. Milwaukee received solid performances from multiple players. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a team-high scored 30 points on 11-for-16 shooting. He also grabbed 12 rebounds and handed out four assists.

Damian Lillard added 26 points, nine dimes, and six boards. Brook Lopez poured in 24 points on 8-for-11 shooting from the field, including a 6-for-9 effort from beyond the arc. Lastly, Bobby Portis led the second unit with 20 points and seven rebounds. 

“I think the last couple of games we’ve played, we’ve just had good energy,” Damian Lillard said after the game. “I think our team recognizes everything that’s happening around us, and we’ve just kind of come closer and just focused even more on games. Once we get to Denver, it’ll be similar. We’ve just got to stay connected and stay on the same path that we’ve been on the last couple of games.”

Milwaukee has played its last three games under interim coach, Joe Prunty, who filled in after the team fired Adrian Griffin after just 43 games. Newly hired coach, Doc Rivers, is expected to make his coaching debut as the Bucks open a five-game road trip against a Nuggets team that is playing its second straight home game following a five-game road trip. 

Can The Nuggets Knock Off Another Eastern Conference Foe?

Denver Nuggets Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 115.1 PPG – 17TH 
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.8 points per 100 possessions – 7TH         
• Scoring Defense: 111.0 PPG – 6TH     
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.6 points per 100 possessions – 12TH    

On the other side of this matchup, although the Nuggets have slipped to the fourth spot in the conference playoff race out west, they are 7-3 over their last 10 games.

This includes a 111-105 win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday night. Nikola Jokic scored a team-high 26 points on 8-for-16 shooting but was 10-of-16 from the free-throw line. He also grabbed 16 rebounds and handed out seven assists.

Jamal Murray chipped in with 23 points and seven assists. Murray also converted six of his 10 attempts from beyond the arc. Michael Porter Jr. added 20 points, eight rebounds, and two assists. 

Even though the Sixers played without Joel Embiid, the Nuggets were not able to put the game away until the final frame. They will need a much better effort against a Bucks team that has the second-highest scoring average in the NBA.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let us look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Nuggets opened as a consensus four-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has climbed to 4.5 points for the home team (per pre-game.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Bucks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
• Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups against Denver.
• In their last six road contests, the Bucks are 0-6 against the spread.
• Milwaukee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• The Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven outings.
• Denver is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 January games.
• In the last five times they have played on a Monday, the Nuggets are 4-1 against the spread.

While neither team has played well against the spread this season, going with the home team to cover is the best option.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets (-4.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 242 points. The line has recently moved to 239 points. Here is why going with the “UNDER” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone UNDER in each of the Nuggets’ last five contests.

• The UNDER total has prevailed six times in Denver’s last seven matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.

• The teams have failed to reach the points total for this matchup five times in the last six head-to-head matchups. 

Prediction: UNDER 239 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player for the road team is Damian Lillard. He currently has -140 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and +110 odds of finishing with less than 24.5 points. Here is a look at how his numbers compare with the projected points total. 

• In 37 career games against the Nuggets, Lillard is averaging 24.5 PPG.
• On the season, Lillard is averaging 25.3 points per outing. 
• In 18 road contests, he is averaging 24.3 PPG.

• Lillard has played nine times against Western Conference teams. In those contests, he is averaging 29.1 points per outing.
• In eight Monday night games, the Bucks’ point guard is averaging 19.5 points per game. 
• During the month of January, he is averaging 23.9 PPG, exceeding the points total for this matchup six times during that stretch.

Going with the “under” for Lillard is the smart choice based on the above trends.

Prediction: Damian Lillard UNDER 24.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Nikola Jokic. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -115 odds of scoring less than 27.5 points. Let us see how his season splits stack up against the projected points total. 

• Nikola Jokic has played against the Bucks 14 times in his career. In those contests, he has averaged 21.4 points per game.
• On the season, the Jokic is averaging 26.3 points per outing. 
• In 22 home games, he is averaging 25.7 PPG.
• Jokic has played against Eastern Conference teams 20 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 24 points per outing.
• In seven matchups against Central Division opponents, he has averaged 17 points per contest.
• The former MVP is averaging 20.7 points per outing in seven Monday night games this season. 
• During the month of January – a sample size of 13 games — Jokic is averaging 26.8 PPG, exceeding the points total six times during that stretch.

Given the above trends, going with the “under” for Jokic is the best option.

Prediction: Nikola Jokic UNDER 27.5 points

James’s Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets Picks

• The Spread: Denver Nuggets (-4.5)
  
• Over/Under: UNDER 239 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Damian Lillard Under 24.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points