DENVER NUGGETS VS. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER ODDS AND PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 31, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Denver Nuggets (33-15 SU, 20-26-2 ATS) taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder (32-15 SU, 30-16-1 ATS).

As these teams clash for the fourth and final time this season, here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why. 

Tipoff

• When: Wednesday, January 31, 2024
  
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Paycom Center
  
• Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
  
• TV: BSOK and ALT 

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Odds (Via DraftKings)

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Nuggets Extend Their Winning Streak To Three Games?

Denver Nuggets Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 115.0 PPG – 17TH        
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.7 points per 100 possessions – 8TH            
• Scoring Defense: 110.9 PPG – 4TH         
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.5 points per 100 possessions – 12TH    

The Denver Nuggets trail the Minnesota Timberwolves by just a half-game for the top spot in the Western Conference. They have won seven times in their last 10 games and enter this matchup on a two-game winning streak. 

This includes a 111-105 win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday night followed by a 113-107 win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday night. This is an impressive feat considering the Bucks and Sixers are second and third, respectively, in the Eastern Conference. 

In the Nugget’s win over the Bucks, Jamal Murray poured in a team-high 35 points on 13-for-22 shooting while totaling five assists and two steals. 

Nikola Jokic notched another triple-double that included 25 points, 16 rebounds and 12 assists. At the other end of the court, he tallied three steals and two blocked shots.

As one would expect in a game featuring two of the best teams in the league, there were 12 ties and nine lead changes.

“I mean, that’s why I play — to play these kinds of games, to play under the pressure, to play tight games,” Jokic said via ESPN. “I like to play under those circumstances.”

The team’s win gave Mike Malone his 400th victory as the Nuggets head coach. This group will be looking to add to that win total against the Thunder. 

Can The Thunder Take Three Of Four From The Defending Champs?

Oklahoma City Thunder Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.8 PPG – 3RD  
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.4 points per 100 possessions – 5TH           
• Scoring Defense: 112.9 PPG – 13TH       
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.6 points per 100 possessions – 5TH     

On the other side of this matchup, the Oklahoma City Thunder have the third-best record in what is shaping up to be a tight playoff race between the top four teams out west. OKC has produced six wins in its last 10 contests, but they come into this matchup amid a two-game skid.

On Sunday, the Thunder suffered a somewhat surprising 120-104 defeat at the hands of the Detroit Pistons. This is a ball club that had dropped 28 consecutive games earlier this season.

In OKC’s most recent outing, they were beaten by the Minnesota Timberwolves 107-101 on Monday night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander set the tone for the Thunder with 37 points on 10-for-18 shooting from the floor and 2-for-3 from beyond the arc. He also handed out eight assists, grabbed seven rebounds, and went 15-for-16 from the free-throw line.  

Jalen Williams added 20 points and three assists, while Josh Giddey contributed 13 points and four rebounds. Thunder head coach, Kenrich Williams, offered a straight-forward assessment about his team playing on back-to-back nights. 

“We’re a team full of no excuses,” Williams said via CBS Sports. “We have no excuses to make as a team. Every night we’ve just got to come out and perform no matter how tired we are or how many games we’ve played. It’s a part of the league. It’s a part of growing into the league as a young team.”

The Thunder have taken two of the first three meetings between these teams and are looking to notch their third straight victory against the defending champions.  

Now that we have set the table for this Western Conference showdown, let us look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Thunder opened as a slim one-point favorite for this matchup. Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Nuggets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Denver is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 matchups against Western Conference opponents. 
• The Thunder are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they have played on a Wednesday. 
• OKC is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 times they have played at home on Wednesday.

Going with the Thunder to cover the small spread is the best option given these trends.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder (-1)

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 229 points. The line has recently dipped to 227 points. Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone UNDER in each of the Nuggets’ last six games.
• The UNDER total has prevailed four times in Denver’s last five road contests.
• In the Nuggets’ last five matchups against Northwest Division opponents, the UNDER total hit ALL five times. 
• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Thunder’s last six games.
• The UNDER total cashed in four times in OKC’s last five matchups against Denver.
• The UNDER total has hit four times in the Thunder’s last five matchups against Western Conference teams. 
• In OKC’s last five games against Northwest Division teams, the UNDER total prevailed four times.

Prediction: UNDER 227 points

Player Prop Bet

At the time of this writing, the only player with player prop data available for either team is Nikola Jokic. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with more than 26.5 points (Via PointsBet).

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Jokic is averaging 26.3 points per outing. 
• In 24 road contests, he is averaging 26.8 PPG.
• Jokic has played against Western Conference opponents 26 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 28.1 points per outing.
• Jokic has played seven times on a Wednesday this season. He is averaging 28.9 points per game. 
• During January, he is averaging 26.6 PPG, exceeding the points total for this matchup eight times during that stretch.

Based on the above trends, going with the “over” for Jokic is the smart choice here.

Prediction: Nikola Jokic OVER 26.5 points

James’s Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Picks

• The Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder (-1)
• Over/Under: UNDER 227 points
• Player Prop Bet: Nikola Jokic OVER 26.5 points