DENVER NUGGETS VS. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS – ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 4, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from Thursday night’s slate features the Denver Nuggets (24-9 SU, 15-18 ATS) taking on the Golden State Warriors (16-17 SU, 16-17 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, January 4, 2024 at 10:00 PM ET
Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: TNT and NBC Sports Bay Area

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Odds (Via DraftKings)

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Nuggets Make It Three Straight Wins Against Warriors?

Denver Nuggets Season Stats:

Scoring Offense: 115.1 PPG – 15TH
Offensive Efficiency: 118.3 points per 100 possessions – 8TH
Scoring Defense: 109.8 PPG – 3RD
Defensive Efficiency: 112.8 points per 100 possessions – 8TH

The Denver Nuggets have the third-best record in the Western Conference. They have produced eight wins across their last 10 outings, including a 111-93 victory over the Charlotte Hornets on Monday night.

Jamal Murray scored a team-high 25 points and handed out seven assists. Michael Porter Jr. added 22 points and eight boards, while Nikola Jokic contributed 13 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists.

The game was tied at 49 at the break, but the defending champions turned it up defensively in the game-changing third quarter that saw them outscore the Hornets by a 40-17 margin.

“Guys were locked in, and defense was leading to offense,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone said, via ESPN. “We took care of it in the second half, and that’s Denver Nuggets basketball.”

During its recent stretch of eight wins in 10 tries, this was just the second time that Denver held an opponent under 100 points. With that in mind, the Nuggets will be looking for a similar effort against Golden State.

Can The Warriors Get Back Into The Conference Playoff Race?

Golden State Warriors Season Stats:

Scoring Offense: 116.9 PPG – 10TH
Offensive Efficiency: 116.9 points per 100 possessions – 12TH
Scoring Defense: 116.3 PPG – 20TH
Defensive Efficiency: 116.2 points per 100 possessions – 20TH

Meanwhile, the Warriors would not even qualify for the play-in tournament if the season ended today. However, they have posted six victories over their last 10 contests. This includes a 121-115 victory against an Orlando Magic squad that is making some noise this season.

Stephen Curry paced the Warriors’ scoring attack with a game-high 36 points on 12-for-20 shooting from the field, including a 4-for-9 effort from beyond the arc. He also tallied six assists and four steals. And down the stretch, he scored or assisted on 13 consecutive points, which proved to be the difference in this contest.

“Steph was amazing,” coach Steve Kerr said. “But Steph is always amazing. Even when he doesn’t score 36 points, just the attention he draws defensively, what he does to an opposing defense, the way he opens up the floor, he is a remarkable player. He really got himself going on a night when we needed it.”

After snapping a three-game losing skid against Orlando, the Warriors are hoping to extend their modest winning streak to two games against a very formidable Nuggets squad.

Now, let us look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Denver Nuggets opened as a consensus 2.5-point favorite in this matchup. The line has moved to three points for the road team. Here is a quick glimpse at why you should bet on the Nuggets to cover the spread.

The Nuggets are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven matchups against Golden State.
The Nuggets are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 January games.
Denver has covered the projected spread for this contest in both regular season meetings against the Warriors — a 108-105 win on Nov. 8 and a 120-114 win on Christmas Day.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets (-3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 235.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 234.5 points. Here is a look at why going with the “OVER” is the smart choice here.

The total has gone OVER four times in the Nuggets’ last five road games against Golden State.

The OVER total has prevailed eight times in the Warriors’ last 12 contests.

The total OVER total has cashed in four times for Golden State in its last five home games against Denver.

In the Warriors’ last seven matchups against Western Conference opponents, the OVER won five times.

Prediction: OVER 234.5 points

Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Nikola Jokic. He currently has -140 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and +110 odds of scoring less than 25.5 points.

On the season, Jokic is averaging 25.7 points per outing.
In 17 road games, he is averaging 24.7 PPG.
Jokic has played against Western Conference teams 23 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.9 points per outing.
Jokic has played in two Thursday night games this season. In those outings, he is averaging 26 PPG.
In the two regular-season matchups between these teams, Jokic is averaging 30.5 PPG.

As the trends seem to indicate, going with the “over” for Jokic looks like the better choice here.

Prediction: Nikola Jokic OVER 25.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Stephen Curry. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points. Here is a look at how his season splits stack up against his projected scoring total for this matchup.

On the season, Curry is averaging 27.6 points per outing.
In 16 home games, he is averaging 29.1 PPG.
Curry has played against Western Conference teams 23 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 26.7 PPG.
He has played three times on Thursday this season. His points-per-game average in those contests is 18.7.
Over his last 10 outings — Curry is averaging 24.3 PPG and just 20.5 points in the two losses to the Nuggets this season.

Based on the above trends, going with “under” for Curry looks like a safe bet here.

Prediction: Stephen Curry UNDER 27.5 points

James’s Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Picks

The Spread: Nuggets (-3)
Over/Under: OVER 234 points
Player Prop Bet #1: Nikola Jokic OVER 25.5 points
Player Prop Bet#2: Stephen Curry UNDER 27.5 points