DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. BOSTON CELTICS GAME 5 ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 17, 2024 – BY JAMES TILLMAN III 

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Latest Basketball News. We have arrived at the last round of the postseason, where the Dallas Mavericks (63-40 SU, 60-42-1 ATS) will take on the Boston Celtics (79-21 SU, 50-44-6 ATS) in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. 

Will the Mavericks stave off elimination once again, or will the Celtics capture their 18th championship? Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Monday, June 17, 2024
  
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
  
• Where: TD Garden
  
• Location: Boston, MA
  
• TV: ABC

Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Odds (Via DraftKings)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

The Boston Celtics rode a seven-game winning streak into the NBA Finals. That torrid streak continued as they took the first three games of this series, extending their overall win streak to 10 games, including a perfect 7-0 mark on the road during their playoff run. 

But as talented as the Celtics are, they failed to bring their “A” game with a chance to close out the series on Thursday night. They were down by double digits early and never made a game of it, to put it nicely. In the end, the Mavericks rolled to an easy 122-84 win, trimming the series deficit to 3-1. 

Jayson Tatum scored a team-high 15 points to go along with five rebounds, three assists, and two blocks. But he shot just 4-for-10 from the field and 1-for-4 from beyond the arc. Jaylen Brown chipped in with 10 points on 3-for-12 shooting from the floor, including a 1-for-5 effort from 3-point range. The Celtics stars were not the only ones who struggled, as the team shot 36.3 percent from the field and 34.1 percent from distance. 

“Preparation doesn’t guarantee an automatic success,” Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said via ESPN. “I thought we had a great process. I thought we had a great shootaround. Thought we had a great film session yesterday. I thought the guys came out with the right intentions. I just didn’t think it went our way, and I thought Dallas outplayed us. They just played harder.”

On the wrong side of the third-largest victory margin in NBA Finals history, the Celtics will look to regroup in an attempt to close out the series in five games. 

On the other side of the equation, the Dallas Mavericks had dropped the first two games of the series in Boston and appeared headed toward a blowout loss in the fourth quarter of Game 3, as they trailed by 21 points. However, Dallas put together a 22-2 run that trimmed the deficit to 93-92. As the Celtics had done for most of the season, they responded appropriately, making enough plays down the stretch to come away with a 106-99 win. 

Facing a 0-3 deficit and their title aspirations on life support, it was Dallas that offered a big-time response in Game 4. The Mavericks led 34-21 after the first 12 minutes of action and led by a 61-35 margin heading into the break. Any hopes the road team had of cutting into the deficit were quickly extinguished, with the Mavericks kicking off the third quarter with a 15-7 burst that gave them a 76-42 lead. Both teams pulled their starters at the 3:18 mark in the third quarter, with the Mavericks leading by a comfortable 88-52 cushion. 

Boston’s 38-point romp was the third-largest victory in Finals history. Chicago defeated Utah by 42 points in Game 3 of the 1998 NBA Finals, and the Celtics knocked off the Lakers 131-92 in the series clincher back in 2008 to capture the team’s 17th championship.

Luka Doncic led the Mavericks’ scoring onslaught with 29 points, five rebounds, five assists, and three steals on 12-for-26 shooting from the floor and 0-for-8 from distance. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dt6g110X-V8

Kyrie Irving chipped in with 21 points, six assists, and four rebounds, connecting on 10 of his 18 attempts overall while missing five of his six attempts from 3-point range.

“I think the most important thing is to show that we believe,” Doncic said after the game. “I think we showed in Game 4. If not, if we wouldn’t believe, we probably wouldn’t have won that game. So, I think, obviously the talk is easy to talk about it, but then showing it is another thing.”

The Mavericks still have their work cut out for them, as no team has overcome a 3-0 series lead in 156 tries. However, they have taken the first step in the process. That, and the fact they have nothing to lose, will make it difficult for the Celtics to finish the job in Game 5. 

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

Despite their 38-point setback in Game 4, the Celtics come into this matchup as a 6.5-point favorite (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Mavericks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against Boston.
• Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven road contests.
• The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday night games.
• In its last nine games as the favorite, Boston is just 2-6-1 against the spread.

The Celtics have been favored to win by 6.5 points or more 57 times this season. Their against-the-spread record in those contests is 31-23-3. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 2-5 against the spread when playing as an underdog of 6.5 points or more.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-6.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 209 points, but at the time of this writing, the line has moved to 209.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Mavericks’ last six contests
• The UNDER total is 6-0 in Dallas’s last six matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.
• In the Mavericks’ last seven June games, the UNDER total holds a 6-1 record.
• The UNDER total won in each of the Celtics’ last five outings.
• The total has gone UNDER six times in Boston’s last seven contests against Dallas.
• The UNDER total has emerged victorious five times in the Celtics’ last six games against Western Conference teams.
• In Boston’s last six matchups against Southwest Division foes, the UNDER total has prevailed five times.

Prediction: UNDER 209.5 points

Player Prop Bets

Luka Doncic leads the Mavericks in multiple categories, including scoring, rebounding, assists and steals. With that in mind, he is the key player to watch for the road team. Doncic currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 32.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 32.5 points (via DraftKings—Note: Odds Subject To Change).

Do Doncic’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• Doncic is averaging 32.7 points per contest across 91 regular season and playoff games.
• In six games against the Celtics this season, he has averaged 31.3 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Doncic is averaging 28.9 points per outing.
• Doncic has suited up against Eastern Conference teams 32 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 34.2 points per outing.
• In 13 matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, the Mavericks guard is averaging 33.0 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Doncic has averaged 30.9 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Luka Doncic OVER 32.5 points

On the other side of the equation, Jayson Tatum leads Boston in scoring, rebounds, and assists per contest, making him the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• Tatum is averaging 26.4 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In six matchups against Dallas this season, he has averaged 25.2 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Tatum is averaging 24.7 points per outing.
• Tatum has played against Western Conference teams 32 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 25.8 points per outing.
• In 14 matchups against Southwest Division opponents, the Celtics forward is averaging 25.0 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Tatum has averaged 25.9 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jayson Tatum OVER 27.5 points

James Tillman’s Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Game 5 Picks

• The Spread: Boston Celtics (-6.5) OddShark
• Over/Under: UNDER 209.5 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Luka Doncic OVER 32.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Jayson Tatum OVER 27.5 points