BOSTON CELTICS VS. MILWAUKEE BUCKS ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR APRIL 9, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Boston Celtics (62-16 SU, 40-34-4 ATS) taking on the Milwaukee Bucks (47-31 SU, 33-45 ATS) for the fourth and final time this season. 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Tuesday, April 9, 2024
  
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
  
• Where: Fiserv Forum
  
• Location: Milwaukee, WI
  
• TV: TNT 

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds (Via DraftKings)

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Celtics Extend Their Winning Streak To Six Games?

Boston Celtics Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.8 PPG – 2ND                      
• Offensive Efficiency: 124.6 points per 100 possessions – 1ST                      
• Scoring Defense: 109.2 PPG – 5TH                    
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.5 points per 100 possessions – 3RD          

The Boston Celtics have been ahead of the playing field for a good chunk of the season. With that in mind, it is not much of a surprise that they own the league’s top record at 62-16. Boston has also won eight of its last 10 contests.

The Celtics also enter this matchup on a five-game winning streak. This includes wins over the New Orleans Pelicans, (104-92), Charlotte Hornets (118-104), Oklahoma City Thunder (135-100), Sacramento Kings (101-100), and most recently, the Portland Trail Blazers (124-107). 

In their win over Portland, Four of the Celtics’ five starters scored in double figures. Jaylen Brown paced the team’s scoring attack with 26 points on 10-for-17 shooting from the field and 3-for-5 from beyond the arc. He collected four rebounds and handed out two assists. In his eighth NBA season, Brown surpassed the 10,000th point of his career. 

“The type of guy that he is, the hard work that he puts in and the growth that he’s shown this year to become a complete player at both ends of the floor, I know he’s happy about that,” Mazzulla told CBS Sports. “It’s cool to be able to coach guys that get to those types of milestones and be a part of that.”

Derrick White finished with 15 points and nine assists while shooting 5-for-13 from the floor and 3-for-10 from 3-point range. Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday contributed 12 points apiece. 

Despite resting some of its top players since securing home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, the Celtics continue to find ways to win games regardless of the level of competition. They have won two of the previous three meetings against the Bucks and that trend will continue tonight against an opponent that is going through an identity crisis. 

Can The Struggling Bucks Recapture Their Early Season Form?

Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.8 PPG – 7TH             
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.8 points per 100 possessions – 7TH              
• Scoring Defense: 116.8 PPG – 22ND                        
• Defensive Efficiency: 117.8 points per 100 possessions – 20TH             

On the other side of this matchup, the Milwaukee Bucks are hitting the wall at the wrong time. Although they hold the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race, their margin for error continues to be razor thin. 

They lead the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks by just one game in the standings. And their lead over the fifth-place Cleveland Cavaliers is just 1.5 games.

Milwaukee has dropped seven of its last 10 contests and comes into this matchup amid a four-game losing skid. This includes a recent 122-109 loss to the New York Knicks on Sunday night. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo paced the Bucks’ scoring attack with a stat line that included 28 points, 15 boards, and eight dimes. And from a defensive standpoint, he added two blocked shots.

Bobby Portis gave Milwaukee a 24-point, five-rebound effort off the bench. Damian Lillard added 23 points and six assists on just 4-for-11 shooting from the floor. He also missed six of his seven attempts from long range. 

On the heels of their sixth loss in seven games, the Bucks are struggling, to put it nicely. But despite the talented roster and a respectable head coach, they have hit a wall at the worst time of the season with the playoffs looming.

“This team is too talented, in my opinion, to go through this,” Rivers said after the game. “No matter who’s been in and out, every team has guys out. And so, I’ve got to figure that out.”

The Bucks remaining games are all against playoff teams. It will be interesting to see if they can finish with the second-best record in what has become a tight playoff race for the teams in the two through five spots.

Now that we have set the table for this Eastern Conference showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

The Boston Celtics opened as a one-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to two points for the road team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Celtics are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 matchups against Milwaukee.
• Boston is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road contests against the Bucks.
• The Bucks are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven contests.
• Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last five home games.

This season, the Celtics have been installed as at least a two-point favorite or more 75 times. Their record against the spread in those games is 39-33-3. 

On the other side of the narrative, the Bucks have been a two-point underdog or more 12 times this season. In those contests, they are 5-7 against the spread.

Given these trends, along with Milwaukee’s recent struggles, going with the road team to cover a small spread is the smart play here. 

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-2)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 227.5 points. The line has recently moved to 228 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER eight times in the Celtics’ last 10 outings.

• The OVER total has cashed in six times in Boston’s last seven road contests.

• In each of the Celtics’ last six games, the OVER total prevailed each time.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Bucks’ last six matchups against Boston.

• In Milwaukee’s last six games against Eastern Conference opponents, the OVER total is 5-1. 

• The two teams average a combined 240.5 points per contest, which is 12.5 points higher than the projected points total for this matchup (228).

Prediction: OVER 228 points

Player Prop Bets

Fresh off his team-high of 26 points against the Trail Blazers, Jaylen Brown is the key player to watch for Boston. He currently has -135 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and +105 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• In 21 career games against the Bucks, Brown has averaged 18.9 points per contest.
• During the season, he is averaging 23.3 points per game across 68 outings.
• In 34 road contests, Brown is averaging 23.1 points per game.
• Brown has played against Eastern Conference teams 41 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 23.3 points per outing.
• In 15 matchups against Central Division opponents, he is averaging 25.5 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Brown has averaged 25.7 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup eight times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jaylen Brown OVER 20.5 points

On the other side of the narrative, Damian Lillard is the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 25.5 points (via PointsBet). 

Do Lillard’s season numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• In 22 career games against the Celtics, Lillard has averaged 23.0 points per contest.
• During the season, he is averaging 24.5 points per game across 70 outings.
• In 37 home contests, Lillard is averaging 25.6 points per game.
• Lillard has played against Eastern Conference teams 45 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 24.1 points per outing.
• In 17 matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, he is averaging 26.1 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Lillard has averaged 23.7 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Damian Lillard UNDER 25.5 points

James Tillman’s Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Picks

• The Spread: Boston Celtics (-2) OddShark
• Over/Under: OVER 228 points (Pre-Game.com/Draft Kings)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Jaylen Brown OVER 20.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Damian Lillard 76ers UNDER 25.5 points