BOSTON CELTICS VS.  DALLAS MAVERICKS – ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 21, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from Monday’s slate features the Boston Celtics (33-10 SU, 21-20 ATS) taking on the Dallas Mavericks (24-18 SU, 23-19 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Monday, January 21, 2024
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Where: American Airlines Center
Location: Dallas, TX
TV: NBC Sports Networks

Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds (Via DraftKings)

Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Celtics Bounce Back From A Lackluster Second Half Against The Well-Rested Mavericks?

Boston Celtics Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.3 PPG – 4TH       
• Offensive Efficiency: 121.0 points per 100 possessions – 3RD       
• Scoring Defense: 110.6 PPG – 4TH       
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.3 points per 100 possessions – 2ND   

The Celtics have the league’s best record and they have posted seven wins in their last 10 contests. Although they suffered their first home loss to the Denver Nuggets, they bounced back with a 116-107 win over the Houston Rockets on Sunday night. 

Kristaps Porzingis led the team with 32 points, six rebounds, and five blocked shots. 

“Each night, it can be a different guy who has a good game,” Porzingis said after the game. “We have that trust in each other that we’re willing to sacrifice to get a guy the ball if he’s having a good night, and tonight was my night. We just took advantage of the mismatches.”

Derrick White added 21 points, 11 rebounds, and three assists, while Jayson Tatum contributed 18 points, seven rebounds and three assists.  

After scoring 70 points in the first half, Boston scored just 46 points in the second half, including 20 points in the third quarter. They will need a wire-to-wire effort to knock off a Mavericks team that has not played in nearly a week.  

Can The Mavericks Slow Down The League’s Top Team?

Dallas Mavericks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.5 PPG – 7TH   
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.0 points per 100 possessions – 9TH        
• Scoring Defense: 117.4 PPG – 20TH       
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.9 points per 100 possessions – 18TH    

On the other side of this matchup, the Mavericks are tied for the sixth-best record in the Western Conference, and they have won six of their last 10 games. This includes a 127-110 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Jan. 17.

Luka Doncic paced the Mavericks with 33 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists. 

Dereck Lively Jr. added 16 points and 11 rebounds. Kyrie Irving scored just 12 points on 4-for-16 shooting from the floor. He also collected five rebounds and handed out six assists.

The Mavericks shot just 11-for-40 (27.5 percent) from beyond the arc – something that head coach Jason Kidd spoke about after the game. 

“We generated a lot of wide-open looks, and they didn’t drop for us,” coach Jason Kidd said, via ESPN. “They made it a point to have pace and took advantage of the misses. When you miss open shots against a team like that, they are going to make you pay.”

The Mavericks will need an efficient effort if they hope to knock off the league’s top team. 

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let us closely examine the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Celtics opened as a four-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped down to two points for the road team. 

Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Celtics are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against Dallas.
• Boston is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road matchups against the Mavericks.
• The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.

Based on these trends, going with the road team to cover the spread is the best option.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-2)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 240 points. The line recently moved to 239 points (via pre-game.com). Here is why going with the “UNDER” is the smart choice. 

• • The total has gone UNDER five times in the Celtics’ last six games.

• The UNDER total has hit four times in Boston’s last five road games.

• In the Celtics’ last five January games, the UNDER total has won four times.

• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Mavericks’ last seven matchups against Boston.

• In Dallas’s last seven games against Boston, the UNDER total cashed in five times.

Prediction: UNDER 239 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Kristaps Porzingis. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 18.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 18.5 points (Via DraftKings). Here is a closer look at how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Porzingis is averaging 19.5 points per outing. 
• In 18 road games, he is averaging 19.2 PPG.
• Porzingis has played against Western Conference teams nine times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 22.6 points per outing.
• During January, Porzingis is averaging just 16.6 PPG. 
• Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 17.9 points per outing, exceeding the projected points total for this matchup five times during that stretch. 

Going with the “over” for Porzingis is the smart play based on the above trends.

Prediction: Kristaps Porzingis OVER 18.5 points

The player to watch for the home team is Luka Doncic. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 31.5 points and -115 odds of scoring less than 31.5 points. Let us see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• On the season, Doncic is averaging 33.6 points per outing. 
• In 17 home games, he is averaging 34.8 PPG.
• Doncic has played against Eastern Conference teams eight times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 31.3 points per outing.
• During the month of January, Doncic is averaging 31.6 PPG. 
• Doncic has played against teams in the Atlantic Division twice this season. In those games, he has averaged 40.0 PPG.
• Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 35.3 points per outing, exceeding the projected points total for this matchup eight times during that stretch. 

Given the above trends, going with the “over” for Doncic is the best option.

Prediction: Luka Doncic OVER 31.5 points

James’s Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks

• The Spread: Boston Celtics (-2)
• Over/Under: Under 239 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Kristaps Porzingis Over 18.5 points.
• Player Prop Bet #2: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points.